Florida Gators vs Florida State Seminoles prediction, odds and picks, November 27, 2026
Florida at Florida State: Bandwagon's model makes Florida State a 56% favorite (Florida State −2.5).
Florida Gators vs Florida State Seminoles odds and win probability
Axle gives Florida State a 56% chance to win, by about 2 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Florida State
All CFB ratings| FLA | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1491 72nd of 138 | 1468 80th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | FSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 56% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | — |
Florida Gators vs Florida State Seminoles prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Seminoles a 2.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 58. Ratings: Seminoles 1468 (80th of 138), Gators 1491 (72nd). The Seminoles have won 2 of their last 5; the Gators 1 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Seminoles won 2, the Gators 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Florida Gators
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma Sooners | L 7–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Bulldogs | L 8–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Longhorns | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Carolina Gamecocks | L 19–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Missouri Tigers | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup |
Florida State Seminoles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Boston College Eagles | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Clemson Tigers | L 24–36 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Hurricanes | L 35–43 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 20–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Virginia Cavaliers | W 38–7 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators | 21–40 | – | – | matchup | |
| Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles | 31–11 | – | – | matchup | |
| Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators | 24–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles | 38–45 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Florida Gators: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Florida State Seminoles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Gators– 11th · L2
- Gators rating1491 72nd of 138, 8 games
- Seminoles– 10th · W1
- Seminoles rating1468 80th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $FLA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida Gators bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $FSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida State Seminoles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Florida State 56% to win. Projected score Florida State 30, Florida 28; spread Florida State −2.5, total 58. Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles, Fri, Nov 27, 3:30 PM ET.