Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Longhorns prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Arkansas at Texas: Bandwagon's model makes Texas a 95% favorite (Texas −28.5); Kalshi prices them at 89%.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Longhorns model odds and win probability
Axle gives Texas a 95% chance to win, by about 28 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Texas win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 95%.
The largest gap is 7 points: Axle has Texas at 95%, Polymarket at 88%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Texas
All CFB ratings| ARK | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1416 96th of 138 | 1770 6th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | TEX win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 95% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 94% | +1 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 93% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 93% | — |
Arkansas vs Texas odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Longhorns at 89%, Polymarket at 88% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 95%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ARK | TEX | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 11% | 89% | ||
| Polymarket | 12% | 88% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 5% | 95% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Longhorns prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Longhorns a 28.5-point favorite at home, with a 95% chance to win. The model total is 49.5. Ratings: Longhorns 1770 (6th of 138), Razorbacks 1416 (96th). The Longhorns have won 3 of their last 5; the Razorbacks 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Longhorns won 2, the Razorbacks 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Arkansas Razorbacks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Auburn Tigers | L 23–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Missouri Tigers | L 10–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vanderbilt Commodores | W 31–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Volunteers | L 17–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas A&M Aggies | L 7–34 | – | – | matchup |
Texas Longhorns
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Missouri Tigers | W 34–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mississippi State Bulldogs | W 31–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ole Miss Rebels | W 34–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Gators | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma Sooners | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas Longhorns | 37–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| Texas Longhorns at Arkansas Razorbacks | 20–10 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Arkansas Razorbacks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Texas Longhorns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Razorbacks– 16th · L2
- Razorbacks rating1416 96th of 138, 8 games
- Longhorns– 4th · W3
- Longhorns rating1770 6th of 138, 9 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 16th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $ARK: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas Razorbacks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $TEXAS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas Longhorns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas Longhorns
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Texas 95% to win. Projected score Texas 39, Arkansas 11; spread Texas −28.5, total 49.5. Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 88% for Texas. Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas Longhorns, Sat, Nov 21, 3:30 PM ET.