The game is 0-0 with 10:11 left in the first, and the model has Arkansas at 30 percent. No crowd picks are in yet, so the Razorbacks' fans are still deciding how worried to be.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreMissouri 34, Arkansas 10 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMissouri 70%
- Pregame Projected scoreMissouri 30, Arkansas 21
- Model spreadMissouri −8.5 total 50.5
- Margin24 projected 8.5
- Total44 projected 50.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Missouri Tigers or Arkansas Razorbacks: the bandwagon
Axle 70–30Market 78–22
FinalPregame: ARK 30%Baseline: ARK 10.2% (−19.4)Big swing: 12.1 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 10 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 34 |
| ARK | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for ARK over the last 5:00
Big swing12.1 ptstoward MIZ at 11:19 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineARK 10.2%game average, −19.4 points from the pregame 29.6%
Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | MIZ390 | ARK288 |
| First downs | MIZ22 | ARK18 |
| 3rd down | MIZ6/13 | ARK8/17 |
| 4th down | MIZ2/3 | ARK2/4 |
| Turnovers | MIZ1 | ARK4 |
| Penalties-yards | MIZ9-80 | ARK7-85 |
| Time of possession | MIZ31:45 | ARK28:15 |
Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIZ34 | ARK10 |
| Average win probability | MIZ90% | ARK10% |
| Longest scoring run | MIZ+14 | ARK+7 |
| Time leading | MIZ50:33 | ARK0:00 |
Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET
Tigers70%
Win chanceRazorbacks30%
SpreadMIZ −8.5closing model spread
Total50.5
Moneyline−238away / +238homeaway / home
Line movementARK win chance, 29 stored lines
+1 pts for ARK between Oct 28 and Oct 31
35%23%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | ARK win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 30% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 29% | — |
- Ratings
- ARK 1452 · MIZ 1629
- Home spread
- +8.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET · 2026-11-01 03:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Missouri Tigers 34, Arkansas Razorbacks 10. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
TigersRazorbacks
Neutrals only–
TigersRazorbacks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Razorbacks–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Missouri vs Arkansas odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Tigers at 78% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 78% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 70% when last read, .
| Source | MIZ | ARK | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 78% | 22% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 78% | 22% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 70% | 30% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, ARK: −7Polymarket minus model, ARK: −7
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tigers a 8.5-point favorite, with a 70% chance to win. The model total is 50.5. Ratings: Razorbacks 1427 (92nd of 138), Tigers 1654 (21st). The Razorbacks have won 2 of their last 5; the Tigers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Razorbacks won 0, the Tigers 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Missouri Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Arkansas Razorbacks | W 34–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ole Miss Rebels | L 3–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas A&M Aggies | W 27–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Gators | W 45–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mississippi State Bulldogs | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup |
Arkansas Razorbacks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Missouri Tigers | L 10–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vanderbilt Commodores | W 31–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Volunteers | L 17–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas A&M Aggies | L 7–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 34–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks | 31–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arkansas Razorbacks at Missouri Tigers | 21–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks | 48–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| Arkansas Razorbacks at Missouri Tigers | 27–29 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Missouri Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Arkansas Razorbacks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Tigers– 7th · W1
- Tigers rating1654 21st of 138, 7 games
- Razorbacks– 15th · L1
- Razorbacks rating1427 92nd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MIZ
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MIZ
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MIZ
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MIZ: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Missouri Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 15th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ARK
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ARK
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ARK
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ARK: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas Razorbacks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks
Sign in to post a take on $MIZARK261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Missouri 34, Arkansas 10. Bandwagon's model had the Missouri at 70% and projected Missouri 30, Arkansas 21; spread Missouri −8.5, total 50.5. Last read: Kalshi 78%, Polymarket 78% for Missouri.