UNLV Rebels lead Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 5-2 with 18:22 left in the 1st period, a 3-goal margin for the home side. The model gives UNLV a 83% chance right now, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Thomas & Mack Center · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs UNLV Rebels: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreNorthern Arizona 77, UNLV 89 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerUNLV 83%
- Pregame Projected scoreUNLV 78, Northern Arizona 67
- Model spreadUNLV −11.5 total 145.5
- Margin12 projected 11.4
- Total166 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks or UNLV Rebels: the bandwagon
Axle 17–83Market –
FinalPregame: UNLV 83%Baseline: UNLV 74.5% (−8.0)Big swing: 29.2 ptsClutch window: 10:43
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | 47 | 30 | 77 |
| UNLV | 43 | 46 | 89 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at UNLV Rebels win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.1 points for UNLV over the last 5:00
Big swing29.2 ptstoward UNLV at 26:42 of game time
Clutch window10:43within 5 points in the final half
BaselineUNLV 74.5%game average, −8.0 points from the pregame 82.6%
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs UNLV Rebels live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | NAU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | NAU25/48 | UNLV29/61 |
| 3-pointers | NAU11/23 | UNLV8/21 |
| Free throws | NAU16/24 | UNLV23/32 |
| Rebounds | NAU26 | UNLV37 |
| Assists | NAU11 | UNLV12 |
| Turnovers | NAU18 | UNLV10 |
| Steals | NAU3 | UNLV11 |
| Blocks | NAU2 | UNLV5 |
| Points in the paint | NAU28 | UNLV42 |
| Fast-break points | NAU4 | UNLV31 |
| Fouls | NAU25 | UNLV21 |
| Largest lead | NAU12 | UNLV14 |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs UNLV Rebels team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | NAU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NAU77 | UNLV89 |
| Average win probability | NAU25% | UNLV75% |
| Longest scoring run | NAU+8 | UNLV+7 |
| Time leading | NAU17:36 | UNLV19:07 |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs UNLV Rebels odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated 23 h ago
Lumberjacks17%
Win chanceRebels83%
SpreadUNLV −11.5closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+473away / −473homeaway / home
Line movementUNLV win chance, 42 stored lines
+18 pts for UNLV between Oct 29 and Nov 4
92%60%
Oct 29Nov 1Nov 4
Every stored line
| Stored | UNLV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:10 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 83% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 82% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 83% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 82% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 86% | +21 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- UNLV 1531 · NAU 1378
- Home spread
- −11.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET · 2026-11-04 05:10 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 77, UNLV Rebels 89. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
LumberjacksRebels
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LumberjacksRebels
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Rebels–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs UNLV Rebels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rebels a 11.5-point favorite at home, with a 83% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Rebels 1538 (112th of 361), Lumberjacks 1372 (339th). The Rebels are 1-0; the Lumberjacks are 0-1. The Rebels have won 3 of their last 5; the Lumberjacks 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UNLV Rebels | L 77–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Idaho State Bengals | L 65–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Montana State Bobcats | L 65–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eastern Washington Eagles | L 57–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Idaho Vandals | L 58–78 | – | – | matchup |
UNLV Rebels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | W 89–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | L 66–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC Irvine Anteaters | W 75–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah State Aggies | L 60–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | W 73–70 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UNLV Rebels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lumberjacks0-1 9th · L1
- Lumberjacks rating1372 339th of 361, 1 games
- Rebels1-0 6th · W1
- Rebels rating1538 112th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $NAUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
UNLV Rebels 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak W1
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