Massachusetts Minutemen lead Troy Trojans 4-2 early in the first period, a margin of -2 for the home side. The model still rates Troy at 73 percent.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Trojan Arena · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreMassachusetts 71, Troy 60 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerTroy 73%
- Pregame Projected scoreTroy 77, Massachusetts 69
- Model spreadTroy −8 total 145.5
- Margin11 projected 7.8
- Total131 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Massachusetts Minutemen or Troy Trojans: the bandwagon
Axle 27–73Market –
FinalPregame: TROY 73%Baseline: TROY 35.0% (−38.2)Big swing: 12.3 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 38 | 33 | 71 |
| TROY | 28 | 32 | 60 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Massachusetts Minutemen at Troy Trojans win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.4 points for TROY over the last 5:00
Big swing12.3 ptstoward MASS at 15:38 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineTROY 35.0%game average, −38.2 points from the pregame 73.2%
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MASS | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | MASS28/65 | TROY22/64 |
| 3-pointers | MASS7/24 | TROY7/28 |
| Free throws | MASS8/15 | TROY9/14 |
| Rebounds | MASS47 | TROY40 |
| Assists | MASS16 | TROY10 |
| Turnovers | MASS13 | TROY9 |
| Steals | MASS5 | TROY10 |
| Blocks | MASS10 | TROY1 |
| Points in the paint | MASS36 | TROY28 |
| Fast-break points | MASS18 | TROY4 |
| Fouls | MASS14 | TROY17 |
| Largest lead | MASS25 | TROY10 |
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MASS | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MASS71 | TROY60 |
| Average win probability | MASS65% | TROY35% |
| Longest scoring run | MASS+17 | TROY+9 |
| Time leading | MASS27:23 | TROY11:07 |
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET
Minutemen27%
Win chanceTrojans73%
SpreadTROY −8closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+273away / −273homeaway / home
Line movementTROY win chance, 11 stored lines
+8 pts for TROY between Oct 29 and Nov 2
81%60%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | TROY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:08 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 73% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 76% | +11 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- TROY 1545 · MASS 1484
- Home spread
- −8
- Stored
- Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET · 2026-11-03 01:31 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Massachusetts Minutemen 71, Troy Trojans 60. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Massachusetts Minutemen vs Troy Trojans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Trojans a 8-point favorite at home, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Trojans 1518 (144th of 361), Minutemen 1510 (161st). The Trojans are 0-1; the Minutemen are 1-0. The Trojans have won 3 of their last 5; the Minutemen 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Massachusetts Minutemen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Troy Trojans | W 71–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toledo Rockets | L 67–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami (OH) RedHawks | W 87–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio Bobcats | W 94–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | L 62–81 | – | – | matchup |
Troy Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | L 60–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | L 47–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | W 77–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 78–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UL Monroe Warhawks | W 80–65 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Massachusetts Minutemen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Troy Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Minutemen1-0 5th · W1
- Minutemen rating1510 161st of 361, 1 games
- Trojans0-1 13th · L1
- Trojans rating1518 144th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
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Troy Trojans 0-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 13th · streak L1
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