Maine Black Bears lead Providence Friars 3-2 with 17:58 left in the 1st period, the first live number in this game. Maine is ahead on the scoreboard, and the margin is one goal.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Amica Mutual Pavilion · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Maine Black Bears vs Providence Friars: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreMaine 56, Providence 83 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerProvidence 79%
- Pregame Projected scoreProvidence 78, Maine 68
- Model spreadProvidence −10 total 145.5
- Margin27 projected 9.9
- Total139 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Maine Black Bears or Providence Friars: the bandwagon
Axle 21–79Market –
FinalPregame: PROV 79%Baseline: PROV 93.9% (+14.8)Big swing: 9.0 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ME | 26 | 30 | 56 |
| PROV | 34 | 49 | 83 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Maine Black Bears at Providence Friars win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for PROV over the last 5:00
Big swing9.0 ptstoward ME at 1:37 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselinePROV 93.9%game average, +14.8 points from the pregame 79.1%
Maine Black Bears vs Providence Friars live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ME | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | ME15/43 | PROV31/68 |
| 3-pointers | ME8/23 | PROV10/30 |
| Free throws | ME18/28 | PROV11/19 |
| Rebounds | ME32 | PROV43 |
| Assists | ME9 | PROV18 |
| Turnovers | ME23 | PROV8 |
| Steals | ME5 | PROV17 |
| Blocks | ME5 | PROV4 |
| Points in the paint | ME10 | PROV42 |
| Fast-break points | ME3 | PROV21 |
| Fouls | ME18 | PROV25 |
| Largest lead | ME3 | PROV33 |
Maine Black Bears vs Providence Friars team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ME | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ME56 | PROV83 |
| Average win probability | ME6% | PROV94% |
| Longest scoring run | ME+7 | PROV+13 |
| Time leading | ME1:17 | PROV36:36 |
Maine Black Bears vs Providence Friars odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET
Black Bears21%
Win chanceFriars79%
SpreadPROV −10closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+380away / −380homeaway / home
Line movementPROV win chance, 11 stored lines
+14 pts for PROV between Oct 29 and Nov 2
88%60%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | PROV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 79% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 83% | +18 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- PROV 1507 · ME 1390
- Home spread
- −10
- Stored
- Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET · 2026-11-03 02:06 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Maine Black Bears 56, Providence Friars 83. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Black BearsFriars
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Black BearsFriars
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Friars–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Maine Black Bears vs Providence Friars prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Friars a 10-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Friars 1518 (143rd of 361), Black Bears 1379 (336th). The Friars are 1-0; the Black Bears are 0-1. The Friars have won 2 of their last 5; the Black Bears 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Maine Black Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Providence Friars | L 56–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| at NJIT Highlanders | L 58–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UMass Lowell River Hawks | L 56–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Binghamton Bearcats | L 67–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UAlbany Great Danes | W 70–59 | – | – | matchup |
Providence Friars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Maine Black Bears | W 83–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. John's Red Storm | L 72–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Butler Bulldogs | W 91–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgetown Hoyas | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marquette Golden Eagles | L 56–78 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Maine Black Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Providence Friars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Black Bears0-1 6th · L1
- Black Bears rating1379 336th of 361, 1 games
- Friars1-0 6th · W1
- Friars rating1518 143rd of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L1
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NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak W1
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