Dayton Flyers vs Northwestern Wildcats prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
Dayton at Northwestern: Bandwagon's model makes Northwestern a 60% favorite (Northwestern −4).
Dayton Flyers vs Northwestern Wildcats odds and win probability
Axle gives Northwestern a 60% chance to win, by about 4 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Northwestern
All CBB ratings| DAY | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1596 55th of 365 | 1556 87th of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Meetings won | 1 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | NU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 60% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 61% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 60% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 61% | +14 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 47% | +2 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:48 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 45% | — |
Dayton Flyers vs Northwestern Wildcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wildcats a 4-point favorite, with a 60% chance to win. The model total is 147.5. Ratings: Wildcats 1556 (87th of 365), Flyers 1596 (55th). The Wildcats are 3-0; the Flyers are 1-2. The Wildcats have won 4 of their last 5; the Flyers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wildcats won 1, the Flyers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Dayton Flyers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Siena Saints | L 89–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Illinois Huskies | L 76–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NJIT Highlanders | W 89–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois State Redbirds | L 55–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UNC Wilmington Seahawks | W 80–61 | – | – | matchup |
Northwestern Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Boston University Terriers | W 72–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stony Brook Seawolves | W 78–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Binghamton Bearcats | W 86–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Purdue Boilermakers | L 68–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Hoosiers | W 74–61 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern Wildcats at Dayton Flyers | 66–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dayton Flyers at Northwestern Wildcats | 66–71 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Dayton Flyers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Northwestern Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Flyers1-2 13th · L2
- Flyers rating1596 55th of 365, 2 games
- Wildcats3-0 4th · W3
- Wildcats rating1556 87th of 365, 3 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Dayton Flyers 1-2
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 13th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $DAYMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dayton Flyers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $NUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northwestern Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Dayton Flyers at Northwestern Wildcats
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Northwestern 60% to win. Projected score Northwestern 76, Dayton 72; spread Northwestern −4, total 147.5. Dayton Flyers at Northwestern Wildcats, Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET.