Alcorn State Braves vs Tarleton State Texans prediction, odds and picks, November 13, 2026
- Projected winnerTarleton State 74%
- Projected scoreTarleton State 77, Alcorn State 69
- Model spreadTarleton State −8 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Alcorn State Braves or Tarleton State Texans: the bandwagon
Axle 26–74Market –
Alcorn State Braves at Tarleton State Texans win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Alcorn State Braves vs Tarleton State Texans live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Alcorn State Braves vs Tarleton State Texans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ALCN | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ALCN– | TAR– |
| Average win probability | ALCN– | TAR– |
| Longest scoring run | ALCN– | TAR– |
| Time leading | ALCN– | TAR– |
Alcorn State Braves vs Tarleton State Texans odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TAR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:05 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:25 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:08 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 2:23 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 74% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 10:46 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 73% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | — |
- Ratings
- TAR 1434 · ALCN 1361
- Home spread
- −8
- Stored
- Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET · 2026-11-05 02:40 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Alcorn State Braves vs Tarleton State Texans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Texans a 8-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Texans 1434 (272nd of 361), Braves 1361 (346th). The Texans are 1-0; the Braves are 0-1. The Texans have won 0 of their last 5; the Braves 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Alcorn State Braves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Ole Miss Rebels | L 58–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Prairie View A&M Panthers | L 56–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Alabama State Hornets | W 77–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions | L 48–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils | W 67–64 | – | – | matchup |
Tarleton State Texans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Abilene Christian Wildcats | L 78–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UT Arlington Mavericks | L 60–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at California Baptist Lancers | L 67–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Valley Wolverines | L 72–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Tech Trailblazers | L 72–80 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Alcorn State Braves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Tarleton State Texans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Braves0-1 5th · L1
- Braves rating1361 346th of 361, 1 games
- Texans1-0 5th · W1
- Texans rating1434 272nd of 361, 0 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ALCNMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alcorn State Braves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $TARMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tarleton State Texans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Alcorn State Braves at Tarleton State Texans
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Model: Tarleton State 74% to win. Projected score Tarleton State 77, Alcorn State 69; spread Tarleton State −8, total 145.5. Alcorn State Braves at Tarleton State Texans, Fri, Nov 13, 8:00 PM ET.