Air Force Falcons vs Wright State Raiders: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreAir Force 71, Wright State 102 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerWright State 88%
- Pregame Projected scoreWright State 80, Air Force 66
- Model spreadWright State −14 total 145.5
- Margin31 projected 14.1
- Total173 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Air Force Falcons or Wright State Raiders: the bandwagon
Axle 12–88Market –
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 31 | 40 | 71 |
| WRST | 60 | 42 | 102 |
Air Force Falcons at Wright State Raiders win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Air Force Falcons vs Wright State Raiders live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | AF | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | AF22/68 | WRST38/64 |
| 3-pointers | AF7/26 | WRST10/23 |
| Free throws | AF20/32 | WRST16/21 |
| Rebounds | AF36 | WRST42 |
| Assists | AF9 | WRST21 |
| Turnovers | AF13 | WRST14 |
| Steals | AF9 | WRST8 |
| Blocks | AF1 | WRST12 |
| Points in the paint | AF26 | WRST52 |
| Fast-break points | AF5 | WRST19 |
| Fouls | AF19 | WRST21 |
| Largest lead | AF0 | WRST32 |
Air Force Falcons vs Wright State Raiders team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | AF | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | AF71 | WRST102 |
| Average win probability | AF1% | WRST99% |
| Longest scoring run | AF+5 | WRST+9 |
| Time leading | AF0:00 | WRST35:44 |
Air Force Falcons vs Wright State Raiders odds
Every stored line
| Stored | WRST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 88% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 92% | +27 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- WRST 1544 · AF 1317
- Home spread
- −14
- Stored
- Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET · 2026-11-03 02:01 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Air Force Falcons 71, Wright State Raiders 102. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Air Force Falcons vs Wright State Raiders prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Raiders a 14-point favorite at home, with a 88% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Raiders 1550 (88th of 361), Falcons 1310 (359th). The Raiders are 1-0; the Falcons are 0-1. The Raiders have won 4 of their last 5; the Falcons 0 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Raiders won 1, the Falcons 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Air Force Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Wright State Raiders | L 71–102 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | L 45–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | L 59–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Grand Canyon Lopes | L 60–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wyoming Cowboys | L 62–66 | – | – | matchup |
Wright State Raiders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Air Force Falcons | W 102–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Virginia Cavaliers | L 73–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Mercy Titans | W 66–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Kentucky Norse | W 103–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland State Vikings | W 90–61 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force Falcons at Wright State Raiders | 57–70 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Air Force Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Wright State Raiders: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Falcons0-1 8th · L1
- Falcons rating1310 359th of 361, 1 games
- Raiders1-0 4th · W1
- Raiders rating1550 88th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $AFMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Air Force Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $WRSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Wright State Raiders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Air Force Falcons at Wright State Raiders
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Final: Air Force 71, Wright State 102. Bandwagon's model had the Wright State at 88% and projected Wright State 80, Air Force 66; spread Wright State −14, total 145.5.