Mainz vs FC Augsburg prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Mainz at FC Augsburg: Bandwagon's model makes FC Augsburg a 46% favorite (FC Augsburg −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 35%.
Mainz vs FC Augsburg model odds and win probability
Axle gives FC Augsburg a 46% chance to win, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Bundesliga marketEach bar is the chance that FC Augsburg win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 46%.
The largest gap is 11 points: Axle has FC Augsburg at 46%, Kalshi at 35%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
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Why Axle has FC Augsburg
All Bundesliga ratings| M05 | FCA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1395 14th of 18 | 1403 11th of 18 |
| Record | 3-5-1 | 2-4-3 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 0-3-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | FCA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | — |
Mainz vs FC Augsburg odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices FC Augsburg at 35%, Polymarket at 36% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 46%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | M05 | Draw | FCA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 40% | 25% | 35% | ||
| Polymarket | 40% | 24% | 36% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 26% | 28% | 46% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Mainz vs FC Augsburg prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the FC Augsburg a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 46% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 4. Ratings: FC Augsburg 1403 (11th of 18), Mainz 1395 (14th). The FC Augsburg are 2-4-3; the Mainz are 3-5-1. The FC Augsburg have won 0 of their last 5; the Mainz 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the FC Augsburg won 1, the Mainz 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Mainz
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Bayern Munich | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SV Elversberg | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Werder Bremen | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Schalke 04 | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayer Leverkusen | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
FC Augsburg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at RB Leipzig | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SC Freiburg | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs 1. FC Union Berlin | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SV Elversberg | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayern Munich | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg at Mainz | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Mainz at FC Augsburg | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Augsburg at Mainz | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Mainz at FC Augsburg | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Augsburg at Mainz | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Mainz at FC Augsburg | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Mainz: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
FC Augsburg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mainz3-5-1 12th
- Mainz rating1395 14th of 18, 9 games
- FC Augsburg2-4-3 14th
- FC Augsburg rating1403 11th of 18, 9 games
More Bundesliga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Mainz 3-5-1
Bundesliga · 12th
No stances yet today on $MAINZ: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mainz bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
FC Augsburg 2-4-3
Bundesliga · 14th
No stances yet today on $AUGSBURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Augsburg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Mainz at FC Augsburg
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: FC Augsburg 46% to win, draw 28%. Projected score FC Augsburg 2.2, Mainz 1.8; spread FC Augsburg −0.5, total 4. Kalshi 35%, Polymarket 36% for FC Augsburg. Mainz at FC Augsburg, Sun, Nov 22, 9:30 AM ET.