New Mexico Lobos open at home with the model giving them a 92% chance right now, while the score is still 0-0 at kickoff. Seattle U Redhawks have no edge on the numbers yet, and no crowd picks are in.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · The Pit · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Seattle U Redhawks vs New Mexico Lobos: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreSeattle U 63, New Mexico 62 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerNew Mexico 92%
- Pregame Projected scoreNew Mexico 75, Seattle U 55
- Model spreadNew Mexico −20 total 130.5
- Margin1 projected 20
- Total125 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Seattle U Redhawks or New Mexico Lobos: the bandwagon
Axle 8–92Market –
FinalPregame: UNM 92%Baseline: UNM 91.1% (−1.3)Big swing: 49.3 ptsClutch window: 5:01
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 15 | 15 | 20 | 13 | 63 |
| UNM | 20 | 17 | 18 | 7 | 62 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
–
Seattle U Redhawks at New Mexico Lobos win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to SEA−98.7 points for UNM over the last 5:00
Big swing49.3 ptstoward SEA at 39:53 of game time
Clutch window5:01within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineUNM 91.1%game average, −1.3 points from the pregame 92.4%
Seattle U Redhawks vs New Mexico Lobos live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | SEA | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | SEA25/62 | UNM25/60 |
| 3-pointers | SEA6/16 | UNM4/20 |
| Free throws | SEA7/15 | UNM8/11 |
| Rebounds | SEA43 | UNM33 |
| Assists | SEA15 | UNM17 |
| Turnovers | SEA16 | UNM14 |
| Steals | SEA8 | UNM7 |
| Blocks | SEA5 | UNM4 |
| Points in the paint | SEA34 | UNM36 |
| Fast-break points | SEA9 | UNM13 |
| Fouls | SEA15 | UNM16 |
| Largest lead | SEA4 | UNM11 |
Seattle U Redhawks vs New Mexico Lobos team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | SEA | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA63 | UNM62 |
| Average win probability | SEA9% | UNM91% |
| Longest scoring run | SEA+12 | UNM+7 |
| Time leading | SEA3:02 | UNM34:05 |
Seattle U Redhawks vs New Mexico Lobos odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET
Redhawks8%
Win chanceLobos92%
SpreadUNM −20closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+1220away / −1220homeaway / home
Line movementUNM win chance, 14 stored lines
+29 pts for UNM between Oct 29 and Nov 2
100%58%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | UNM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:20 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:46 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 92% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 96% | +33 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- UNM 1558 · SEA 1280
- Home spread
- −20
- Stored
- Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET · 2026-11-02 19:36 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Seattle U Redhawks 63, New Mexico Lobos 62. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
RedhawksLobos
Neutrals only–
RedhawksLobos
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Lobos–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Seattle U Redhawks vs New Mexico Lobos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lobos a 20-point favorite at home, with a 92% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Lobos 1552 (120th of 356), Redhawks 1286 (350th). The Lobos are 0-1; the Redhawks are 1-0. The Lobos have won 3 of their last 5; the Redhawks 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Seattle U Redhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New Mexico Lobos | W 63–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | L 58–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Pepperdine Waves | L 67–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington State Cougars | L 55–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Pilots | L 61–65 | – | – | matchup |
New Mexico Lobos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Seattle U Redhawks | L 62–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boise State Broncos | L 61–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fresno State Bulldogs | W 86–64 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nevada Wolf Pack | W 63–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah State Aggies | W 69–54 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Seattle U Redhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New Mexico Lobos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Redhawks1-0 7th · W1
- Redhawks rating1286 350th of 356, 1 games
- Lobos0-1 6th · L1
- Lobos rating1552 120th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak W1
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SEAWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SEAWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SEAWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SEAWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Seattle U Redhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New Mexico Lobos 0-1
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak L1
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UNMWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UNMWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UNMWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UNMWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico Lobos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Seattle U Redhawks at New Mexico Lobos
Sign in to post a take on $SEAWBBUNMWBB261102: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Seattle U 63, New Mexico 62. Bandwagon's model had the New Mexico at 92% and projected New Mexico 75, Seattle U 55; spread New Mexico −20, total 130.5.