Oklahoma Sooners lead North Carolina Tar Heels 9-2 with 7:21 on the clock in the 1st, a 7-point gap for the away side. The model still gives the home side 54%.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Carmichael Arena · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Oklahoma Sooners vs North Carolina Tar Heels: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreOklahoma 91, North Carolina 79 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerNorth Carolina 54%
- Pregame Projected scoreNorth Carolina 67, Oklahoma 64
- Model spreadNorth Carolina −3.5 total 130.5
- Margin12 projected 3.5
- Total170 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Oklahoma Sooners or North Carolina Tar Heels: the bandwagon
Axle 46–54Market –
FinalPregame: UNC 54%Baseline: UNC 31.4% (−22.4)Big swing: 23.0 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OU | 18 | 21 | 31 | 21 | 91 |
| UNC | 19 | 19 | 14 | 27 | 79 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Oklahoma Sooners at North Carolina Tar Heels win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.0 points for UNC over the last 5:00
Big swing23.0 ptstoward UNC at 19:40 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineUNC 31.4%game average, −22.4 points from the pregame 53.8%
Oklahoma Sooners vs North Carolina Tar Heels live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | OU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | OU33/75 | UNC29/86 |
| 3-pointers | OU10/28 | UNC11/40 |
| Free throws | OU15/20 | UNC10/17 |
| Rebounds | OU53 | UNC48 |
| Assists | OU23 | UNC22 |
| Turnovers | OU21 | UNC17 |
| Steals | OU10 | UNC16 |
| Blocks | OU7 | UNC2 |
| Points in the paint | OU38 | UNC36 |
| Fast-break points | OU7 | UNC22 |
| Fouls | OU17 | UNC22 |
| Largest lead | OU20 | UNC6 |
Oklahoma Sooners vs North Carolina Tar Heels team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | OU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OU91 | UNC79 |
| Average win probability | OU69% | UNC31% |
| Longest scoring run | OU+11 | UNC+7 |
| Time leading | OU25:39 | UNC11:03 |
Oklahoma Sooners vs North Carolina Tar Heels odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET
Sooners46%
Win chanceTar Heels54%
SpreadUNC −3.5closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+116away / −116homeaway / home
Line movementUNC win chance, 10 stored lines
+4 pts for UNC between Oct 29 and Nov 2
59%38%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | UNC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:20 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | +10 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 44% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- UNC 1716 · OU 1703
- Home spread
- −3.5 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET · 2026-11-02 20:47 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Oklahoma Sooners 91, North Carolina Tar Heels 79. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Oklahoma Sooners vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tar Heels a 3.5-point favorite, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Tar Heels 1696 (19th of 356), Sooners 1723 (15th). The Tar Heels are 0-1; the Sooners are 1-0. The Tar Heels have won 2 of their last 5; the Sooners 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Tar Heels won 1, the Sooners 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Oklahoma Sooners
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at North Carolina Tar Heels | W 91–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Carolina Gamecocks | L 68–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Michigan State Spartans | W 77–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Idaho Vandals | W 89–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LSU Tigers | L 78–112 | – | – | matchup |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma Sooners | L 79–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 42–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Maryland Terrapins | W 74–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Illinois Leathernecks | W 82–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 57–65 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels at Oklahoma Sooners | 61–52 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Oklahoma Sooners: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Carolina Tar Heels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Sooners1-0 11th · W1
- Sooners rating1723 15th of 356, 1 games
- Tar Heels0-1 17th · L1
- Tar Heels rating1696 19th of 356, 1 games
Oklahoma Sooners 1-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 11th · streak W1
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No stances yet today on $OUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oklahoma Sooners bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 17th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $UNCWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Tar Heels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: Oklahoma 91, North Carolina 79. Bandwagon's model had the North Carolina at 54% and projected North Carolina 67, Oklahoma 64; spread North Carolina −3.5, total 130.5.