Kentucky Wildcats lead Morehead State Eagles 33-9 with 4:15 left in the 2nd, a 24-point margin. The model has Kentucky at 90 percent, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Rupp Arena · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Morehead State Eagles vs Kentucky Wildcats: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreMorehead State 42, Kentucky 85 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerKentucky 90%
- Pregame Projected scoreKentucky 74, Morehead State 56
- Model spreadKentucky −17.5 total 130.5
- Margin43 projected 17.6
- Total127 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Morehead State Eagles or Kentucky Wildcats: the bandwagon
Axle 10–90Market –
FinalPregame: UK 90%Baseline: UK 98.7% (+8.9)Big swing: 7.6 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORE | 4 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 42 |
| UK | 18 | 24 | 21 | 22 | 85 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Morehead State Eagles at Kentucky Wildcats win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for UK over the last 5:00
Big swing7.6 ptstoward UK at 4:55 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineUK 98.7%game average, +8.9 points from the pregame 89.8%
Morehead State Eagles vs Kentucky Wildcats live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MORE | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | MORE17/55 | UK34/76 |
| 3-pointers | MORE4/12 | UK5/23 |
| Free throws | MORE4/9 | UK12/15 |
| Rebounds | MORE30 | UK49 |
| Assists | MORE7 | UK20 |
| Turnovers | MORE20 | UK8 |
| Steals | MORE2 | UK6 |
| Blocks | MORE1 | UK11 |
| Points in the paint | MORE20 | UK54 |
| Fast-break points | MORE2 | UK10 |
| Fouls | MORE18 | UK13 |
| Largest lead | MORE0 | UK43 |
Morehead State Eagles vs Kentucky Wildcats team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MORE | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MORE42 | UK85 |
| Average win probability | MORE1% | UK99% |
| Longest scoring run | MORE+3 | UK+11 |
| Time leading | MORE0:00 | UK35:05 |
Morehead State Eagles vs Kentucky Wildcats odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET
Eagles10%
Win chanceWildcats90%
SpreadUK −17.5closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+884away / −884homeaway / home
Line movementUK win chance, 22 stored lines
+27 pts for UK between Oct 29 and Nov 2
99%58%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | UK win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:46 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:58 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:08 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 90% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 94% | +31 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- UK 1689 · MORE 1456
- Home spread
- −17.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET · 2026-11-03 01:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Morehead State Eagles 42, Kentucky Wildcats 85. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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EaglesWildcats
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EaglesWildcats
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Wildcats–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Morehead State Eagles vs Kentucky Wildcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wildcats a 17.5-point favorite at home, with a 90% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Wildcats 1697 (17th of 356), Eagles 1448 (228th). The Wildcats are 1-0; the Eagles are 0-1. The Wildcats have won 3 of their last 5; the Eagles 0 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wildcats won 2, the Eagles 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Morehead State Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Kentucky Wildcats | L 42–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Radford Highlanders | L 58–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks | L 55–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Little Rock Trojans | L 68–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Illinois Leathernecks | L 53–74 | – | – | matchup |
Kentucky Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Morehead State Eagles | W 85–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Longhorns | L 54–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at West Virginia Mountaineers | W 74–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs James Madison Dukes | W 71–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Carolina Gamecocks | L 64–87 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morehead State Eagles at Kentucky Wildcats | 59–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| Morehead State Eagles at Kentucky Wildcats | 48–73 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Morehead State Eagles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Kentucky Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Eagles0-1 7th · L1
- Eagles rating1448 228th of 356, 1 games
- Wildcats1-0 6th · W1
- Wildcats rating1697 17th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $MOREWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Morehead State Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UKWBB
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No stances yet today on $UKWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kentucky Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Morehead State Eagles at Kentucky Wildcats
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Final: Morehead State 42, Kentucky 85. Bandwagon's model had the Kentucky at 90% and projected Kentucky 74, Morehead State 56; spread Kentucky −17.5, total 130.5.