Florida State leads Merrimack 38-19 at the half, a 19-point margin in the Warriors at Seminoles game. Our model had the Seminoles at 56% before kickoff, and no crowd picks are in yet. - Jordan Reyes
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Donald L. Tucker Civic Center · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Merrimack Warriors vs Florida State Seminoles: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreMerrimack 51, Florida State 81 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerFlorida State 56%
- Pregame Projected scoreFlorida State 67, Merrimack 63
- Model spreadFlorida State −4.5 total 130.5
- Margin30 projected 4.3
- Total132 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Merrimack Warriors or Florida State Seminoles: the bandwagon
Axle 44–56Market –
FinalPregame: FSU 56%Baseline: FSU 83.4% (+27.3)Big swing: 14.5 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRMK | 15 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 51 |
| FSU | 16 | 22 | 29 | 14 | 81 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Merrimack Warriors at Florida State Seminoles win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for FSU over the last 5:00
Big swing14.5 ptstoward FSU at 3:20 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineFSU 83.4%game average, +27.3 points from the pregame 56.1%
Merrimack Warriors vs Florida State Seminoles live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MRMK | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | MRMK19/49 | FSU34/79 |
| 3-pointers | MRMK6/22 | FSU9/29 |
| Free throws | MRMK7/8 | FSU4/8 |
| Rebounds | MRMK38 | FSU35 |
| Assists | MRMK10 | FSU11 |
| Turnovers | MRMK34 | FSU10 |
| Steals | MRMK4 | FSU18 |
| Blocks | MRMK4 | FSU4 |
| Points in the paint | MRMK26 | FSU48 |
| Fast-break points | MRMK2 | FSU14 |
| Fouls | MRMK8 | FSU14 |
| Largest lead | MRMK3 | FSU41 |
Merrimack Warriors vs Florida State Seminoles team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MRMK | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MRMK51 | FSU81 |
| Average win probability | MRMK17% | FSU83% |
| Longest scoring run | MRMK+5 | FSU+17 |
| Time leading | MRMK2:59 | FSU35:54 |
Merrimack Warriors vs Florida State Seminoles odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET
Warriors44%
Win chanceSeminoles56%
SpreadFSU −4.5closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+128away / −128homeaway / home
Line movementFSU win chance, 13 stored lines
−7 pts for FSU between Oct 29 and Nov 2
69%49%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | FSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:06 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:13 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 56% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 54% | −9 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- FSU 1478 · MRMK 1514
- Home spread
- −4.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET · 2026-11-03 00:51 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Merrimack Warriors 51, Florida State Seminoles 81. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
WarriorsSeminoles
Neutrals only–
WarriorsSeminoles
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Seminoles–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Merrimack Warriors vs Florida State Seminoles prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Seminoles a 4.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Seminoles 1502 (167th of 356), Warriors 1490 (187th). The Seminoles are 1-0; the Warriors are 0-1. The Seminoles have won 2 of their last 5; the Warriors 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Merrimack Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Florida State Seminoles | L 51–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NJIT Highlanders | L 65–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fairfield Stags | L 48–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | W 62–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Niagara Purple Eagles | W 60–44 | – | – | matchup |
Florida State Seminoles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Merrimack Warriors | W 81–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | L 60–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | W 77–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Duke Blue Devils | L 52–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | L 61–77 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Merrimack Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Florida State Seminoles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Warriors0-1 6th · L1
- Warriors rating1490 187th of 356, 1 games
- Seminoles1-0 4th · W1
- Seminoles rating1502 167th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MRMKWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MRMKWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MRMKWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Merrimack Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FSUWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FSUWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FSUWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FSUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida State Seminoles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Merrimack Warriors at Florida State Seminoles
Sign in to post a take on $MRMKWBBFSUWBB261102: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Merrimack 51, Florida State 81. Bandwagon's model had the Florida State at 56% and projected Florida State 67, Merrimack 63; spread Florida State −4.5, total 130.5.