New York Islanders vs Detroit Red Wings prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Islanders at Red Wings: Bandwagon's model makes the Red Wings a 53% favorite (even).
New York Islanders vs Detroit Red Wings model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Red Wings a 53% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Red Wings win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 53%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Axle has the Red Wings at 53%, Polymarket at 52%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
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Why Axle has the Red Wings
All NHL ratings| NYI | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1475 22nd of 32 | 1472 23rd of 32 |
| Record | 7-6-4 | 7-9-3 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | DET win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 10:53 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:53 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:02 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:12 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:58 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:53 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | — |
Islanders vs Red Wings odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Red Wings at 52%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 53%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NYI | DET | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48% | 52% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 47% | 53% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New York Islanders vs Detroit Red Wings prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Red Wings the favorite, with a 53% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 6. Ratings: Red Wings 1472 (23rd of 32), Islanders 1475 (22nd). The Red Wings are 7-9-3 in the Atlantic Division; the Islanders are 7-6-4 in the Metropolitan Division. The Red Wings have won 1 of their last 5; the Islanders 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Red Wings won 4, the Islanders 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
New York Islanders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Jose Sharks | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Jersey Devils | L 4–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Carolina Hurricanes | L 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Edmonton Oilers | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Wild | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Detroit Red Wings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at St. Louis Blues | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Avalanche | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vegas Golden Knights | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Lightning | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Panthers | W 5–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings | 5–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders | 2–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders | 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New York Islanders: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Detroit Red Wings: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Islanders7-6-4 Metropolitan Division, 5th · L4
- Islanders rating1475 22nd of 32, 17 games
- Red Wings7-9-3 Atlantic Division, 8th · L4
- Red Wings rating1472 23rd of 32, 18 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
New York Islanders 7-6-4
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 5th · streak L4
No stances yet today on $ISLANDERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New York Islanders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Detroit Red Wings 7-9-3
National Hockey League · Atlantic Division · 8th · streak L4
No stances yet today on $REDWINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Detroit Red Wings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Red Wings 53% to win. Projected score Red Wings 3.1, Islanders 2.9; spread even, total 6. Polymarket 52% for the Red Wings. New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings, Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ET.