Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
- Projected winnerBills 86%
- Projected scoreBills 31, Dolphins 17
- Model spreadBills −14 total 48.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Miami Dolphins or Buffalo Bills: the bandwagon
Axle 14–86Market –
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MIA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIA– | BUF– |
| Average win probability | MIA– | BUF– |
| Longest scoring run | MIA– | BUF– |
| Time leading | MIA– | BUF– |
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills odds
Every stored line
| Stored | BUF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | — |
- Ratings
- BUF 1668 · MIA 1375
- Home spread
- −14
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bills a 14-point favorite at home, with a 86% chance to win. The model total is 48.5. Ratings: Bills 1668 (1st of 32), Dolphins 1375 (30th). The Bills are 6-1 in the AFC East; the Dolphins are 1-6 in the AFC East. The Bills have won 4 of their last 5; the Dolphins 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bills won 5, the Dolphins 1. The roster source lists 4 Bills and 6 Dolphins players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Miami Dolphins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New England Patriots | L 19–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Jets | W 28–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cincinnati Bengals | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Vikings | L 10–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | L 10–24 | – | – | matchup |
Buffalo Bills
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Baltimore Ravens | W 36–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Las Vegas Raiders | W 33–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Rams | W 37–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Patriots | L 26–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 24–16 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins | 13–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills | 21–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills | 27–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins | 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins | 21–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills | 20–48 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Miami Dolphins: De'Von Achane RB, Ronnie Harrison Jr. LB, Darrell Baker Jr. CB, Rene Konga DT, Trey Moore LB, Cole Turner TE
Buffalo Bills: Tyrell Shavers WR, Jordan Hancock CB, Dorian Strong CB, Zane Durant DT
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Dolphins1-6 AFC East, 4th · L1
- Dolphins rating1375 30th of 32, 7 games
- Bills6-1 AFC East, 1st · W3
- Bills rating1668 1st of 32, 7 games
Miami Dolphins 1-6
National Football League · AFC East · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $DOLPHINS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Miami Dolphins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Buffalo Bills 6-1
National Football League · AFC East · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $BILLS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Buffalo Bills bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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