Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Suns at Kings: Bandwagon's model makes the Suns a 64% favorite (Suns −2.5).
Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Suns a 64% chance to win, by about 2 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Suns win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 64%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Polymarket has the Suns at 70%, Axle at 64%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Suns
All NBA ratings| PHX | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1477 19th of 30 | 1300 26th of 30 |
| Record | 4-6 | 1-10 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 5 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SAC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:32 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 36% | −3 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:27 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 39% | +2 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:37 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:32 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:17 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:13 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:53 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:37 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:25 PM ET | 37% | −2 |
| Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:49 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:49 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:30 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:20 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:26 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 12:42 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:31 PM ET | 39% | −3 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 42% | — |
Suns vs Kings odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Suns at 70%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 64%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PHX | SAC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 70% | 30% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 64% | 36% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Suns a 2.5-point favorite, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 230. Ratings: Kings 1300 (26th of 30), Suns 1477 (19th). The Kings are 1-10 in the Pacific; the Suns are 4-6 in the Pacific. The Kings have won 1 of their last 5; the Suns 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Kings won 1, the Suns 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Phoenix Suns
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LA Clippers | W 133–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Antonio Spurs | L 96–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Rockets | W 102–99 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando Magic | W 117–104 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Trail Blazers | L 119–132 | – | – | matchup |
Sacramento Kings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Orlando Magic | L 100–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Heat | L 108–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Antonio Spurs | L 109–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Lakers | L 103–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | W 115–100 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings | 114–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns | 102–129 | – | – | matchup | |
| Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings | 112–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns | 116–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings | 98–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns | 106–122 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Phoenix Suns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Sacramento Kings: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Suns4-6 Pacific, 3rd · W1
- Suns rating1477 19th of 30, 9 games
- Kings1-10 Pacific, 1st · L4
- Kings rating1300 26th of 30, 10 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Phoenix Suns 4-6
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SUNS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Phoenix Suns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Sacramento Kings 1-10
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 1st · streak L4
No stances yet today on $KINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sacramento Kings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Sign in to post a take on $SUNSKINGS261119: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Suns 64% to win. Projected score Suns 116, Kings 114; spread Suns −2.5, total 230. Polymarket 70% for the Suns. Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings, Wed, Nov 18, 10:00 PM ET.