New Orleans Pelicans vs San Antonio Spurs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Pelicans at Spurs: Bandwagon's model makes the Spurs a 91% favorite (Spurs −18).
New Orleans Pelicans vs San Antonio Spurs model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Spurs a 91% chance to win, by about 18 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Spurs win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 91%.
The largest gap is 10 points: Axle has the Spurs at 91%, Polymarket at 81%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Spurs
All NBA ratings| NO | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1395 23rd of 30 | 1756 1st of 30 |
| Record | 4-7 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | W9 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 91% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:27 AM ET | 91% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 90% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:37 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:17 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:13 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:38 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:53 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 89% | — |
Pelicans vs Spurs odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Spurs at 81%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 91%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NO | SA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 19% | 81% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 9% | 91% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New Orleans Pelicans vs San Antonio Spurs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Spurs a 18-point favorite at home, with a 91% chance to win. The model total is 231.5. Ratings: Spurs 1756 (1st of 30), Pelicans 1395 (23rd). The Spurs are 9-2 in the Southwest; the Pelicans are 4-7 in the Southwest. The Spurs have won 5 of their last 5; the Pelicans 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Spurs won 4, the Pelicans 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
New Orleans Pelicans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Golden State Warriors | L 87–138 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LA Clippers | L 123–139 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Timberwolves | L 109–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Jazz | W 120–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Memphis Grizzlies | W 135–134 | – | – | matchup |
San Antonio Spurs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Phoenix Suns | W 122–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Portland Trail Blazers | W 125–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sacramento Kings | W 124–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Mavericks | W 112–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Jazz | W 119–97 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs | 104–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans | 135–132 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs | 119–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans | 120–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs | 115–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans | 103–109 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New Orleans Pelicans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Antonio Spurs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Pelicans4-7 Southwest, 1st · L3
- Pelicans rating1395 23rd of 30, 11 games
- Spurs9-2 Southwest, 5th · W9
- Spurs rating1756 1st of 30, 11 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 1st · streak L3
No stances yet today on $PELICANS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Orleans Pelicans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 5th · streak W9
No stances yet today on $SPURS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Antonio Spurs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Spurs 91% to win. Projected score Spurs 125, Pelicans 107; spread Spurs −18, total 231.5. Polymarket 81% for the Spurs. New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM ET.