Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Celtics at Warriors: Bandwagon's model makes the Celtics a 53% favorite (Warriors −0.5).
Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Celtics a 53% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Celtics win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 53%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Polymarket has the Celtics at 54%, Axle at 53%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has the Celtics
All NBA ratings| BOS | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1664 5th of 30 | 1530 13th of 30 |
| Record | 9-2 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W4 | W8 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | GS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:32 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 47% | −3 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:27 AM ET | 50% | +4 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 46% | — |
Celtics vs Warriors odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Celtics at 54%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 53%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BOS | GS | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 54% | 46% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 53% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Celtics the favorite, with a 53% chance to win; its spread is Warriors −0.5. The model total is 226. Ratings: Warriors 1530 (13th of 30), Celtics 1664 (5th). The Warriors are 8-3 in the Pacific; the Celtics are 9-2 in the Atlantic. The Warriors have won 5 of their last 5; the Celtics 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Warriors won 2, the Celtics 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Boston Celtics
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Philadelphia 76ers | W 123–101 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 117–97 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | W 119–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Milwaukee Bucks | W 109–102 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Rockets | L 93–109 | – | – | matchup |
Golden State Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New Orleans Pelicans | W 138–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando Magic | W 126–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Heat | W 120–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Phoenix Suns | W 116–113 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Clippers | W 124–112 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics | 99–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors | 121–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors | 125–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics | 118–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics | 88–140 | – | – | matchup | |
| Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors | 126–132 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Boston Celtics: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Golden State Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Celtics9-2 Atlantic, 5th · W4
- Celtics rating1664 5th of 30, 10 games
- Warriors8-3 Pacific, 4th · W8
- Warriors rating1530 13th of 30, 11 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Boston Celtics 9-2
National Basketball Association · Atlantic · 5th · streak W4
No stances yet today on $CELTICS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Boston Celtics bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Pacific · 4th · streak W8
No stances yet today on $WARRIORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Golden State Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Celtics 53% to win. Spread Warriors −0.5, total 226. Polymarket 54% for the Celtics. Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, Sun, Nov 22, 8:30 PM ET.