Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution: Bandwagon's model makes New England Revolution a 38% favorite (even); Kalshi prices them at 30%.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution model odds and win probability
Axle gives New England Revolution a 38% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every MLS marketEach bar is the chance that New England Revolution win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 38%.
The largest gap is 10 points: Axle has New England Revolution at 38%, Polymarket at 28%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has New England Revolution
All MLS ratings| PHI | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1575 4th of 30 | 1499 13th of 30 |
| Record | 14-12-8 | 18-12-4 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 3-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | NE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:05 AM ET | 38% | — |
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices New England Revolution at 30%, Polymarket at 28% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 38%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PHI | Draw | NE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 46% | 24% | 30% | ||
| Polymarket | 47% | 25% | 28% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 35% | 27% | 38% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the New England Revolution the favorite, with a 38% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: New England Revolution 1499 (13th of 30), Philadelphia Union 1575 (4th). The New England Revolution are 18-12-4; the Philadelphia Union are 14-12-8. The New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5; the Philadelphia Union 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the New England Revolution won 2, the Philadelphia Union 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Philadelphia Union
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toronto FC | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Cincinnati | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville SC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Revolution | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
New England Revolution
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Orlando City SC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Inter Miami CF | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Red Bull New York | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia Union | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Fire FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution at Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| New England Revolution at Philadelphia Union | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| New England Revolution at Philadelphia Union | 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution | 3–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Philadelphia Union: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New England Revolution: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Philadelphia Union14-12-8 6th
- Philadelphia Union rating1575 4th of 30, 34 games
- New England Revolution18-12-4 3rd
- New England Revolution rating1499 13th of 30, 34 games
More MLS games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Philadelphia Union 14-12-8
Major League Soccer · 6th
No stances yet today on $PHILADELPHIA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia Union bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New England Revolution 18-12-4
Major League Soccer · 3rd
No stances yet today on $NEWENGLAND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New England Revolution bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: New England Revolution 38% to win, draw 27%. Projected score level, 1.5 each; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 30%, Polymarket 28% for New England Revolution. Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution, Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ET.