FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City SC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
FC Cincinnati at Orlando City SC: Bandwagon's model makes Orlando City SC a 47% favorite (Orlando City SC −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 39%.
FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City SC model odds and win probability
Axle gives Orlando City SC a 47% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every MLS marketEach bar is the chance that Orlando City SC win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 47%.
The largest gap is 8 points: Axle has Orlando City SC at 47%, Kalshi at 39%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Orlando City SC
All MLS ratings| CIN | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1493 16th of 30 | 1500 12th of 30 |
| Record | 12-12-10 | 13-14-7 |
| Last 5 games | 3-1-1 | 2-1-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ORL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:05 AM ET | 47% | — |
FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City SC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Orlando City SC at 39%, Polymarket at 40% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 47%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CIN | Draw | ORL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38% | 23% | 39% | ||
| Polymarket | 38% | 22% | 40% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 27% | 26% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City SC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Orlando City SC a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 47% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Orlando City SC 1500 (12th of 30), FC Cincinnati 1493 (16th). The Orlando City SC are 13-14-7; the FC Cincinnati are 12-12-10. The Orlando City SC have won 2 of their last 5; the FC Cincinnati 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Orlando City SC won 1, the FC Cincinnati 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
FC Cincinnati
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Nashville SC | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Union | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Inter Miami CF | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at D.C. United | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs D.C. United | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Orlando City SC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New England Revolution | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte FC | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Fire FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York City FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs D.C. United | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati at Orlando City SC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Orlando City SC at FC Cincinnati | 2–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Orlando City SC at FC Cincinnati | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cincinnati at Orlando City SC | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Orlando City SC at FC Cincinnati | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cincinnati at Orlando City SC | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
FC Cincinnati: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Orlando City SC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- FC Cincinnati12-12-10 9th
- FC Cincinnati rating1493 16th of 30, 34 games
- Orlando City SC13-14-7 8th
- Orlando City SC rating1500 12th of 30, 34 games
More MLS games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
FC Cincinnati 12-12-10
Major League Soccer · 9th
No stances yet today on $CINCINNATI: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Cincinnati bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Orlando City SC 13-14-7
Major League Soccer · 8th
No stances yet today on $ORLANDO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Orlando City SC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on FC Cincinnati at Orlando City SC
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Orlando City SC 47% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Orlando City SC 2.0, FC Cincinnati 1.5; spread Orlando City SC −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 39%, Polymarket 40% for Orlando City SC. FC Cincinnati at Orlando City SC, Thu, Nov 19, 7:30 PM ET.