Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami CF prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF: Bandwagon's model makes Inter Miami CF a 53% favorite (Inter Miami CF −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 57%.
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami CF model odds and win probability
Axle gives Inter Miami CF a 53% chance to win, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every MLS marketEach bar is the chance that Inter Miami CF win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 53%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Kalshi has Inter Miami CF at 57%, Axle at 53%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Inter Miami CF
All MLS ratings| CLB | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1539 7th of 30 | 1600 3rd of 30 |
| Record | 14-15-5 | 16-6-12 |
| Last 5 games | 5-0 | 2-1-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MIA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:05 AM ET | 53% | — |
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami CF odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Inter Miami CF at 57%, Polymarket at 55% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 53%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CLB | Draw | MIA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 24% | 19% | 57% | ||
| Polymarket | 24% | 21% | 55% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 22% | 25% | 53% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami CF prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Inter Miami CF a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 53% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Inter Miami CF 1600 (3rd of 30), Columbus Crew 1539 (7th). The Inter Miami CF are 16-6-12; the Columbus Crew are 14-15-5. The Inter Miami CF have won 2 of their last 5; the Columbus Crew 5 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Inter Miami CF won 4, the Columbus Crew 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Columbus Crew
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Chicago Fire FC | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs D.C. United | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Dallas | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto FC | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Cincinnati | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Inter Miami CF
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Charlotte FC | T 3–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Revolution | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Cincinnati | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Red Bull New York | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta United FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF | 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Columbus Crew: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Inter Miami CF: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Columbus Crew14-15-5 7th
- Columbus Crew rating1539 7th of 30, 34 games
- Inter Miami CF16-6-12 2nd
- Inter Miami CF rating1600 3rd of 30, 34 games
More MLS games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Columbus Crew 14-15-5
Major League Soccer · 7th
No stances yet today on $COLUMBUS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Columbus Crew bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Inter Miami CF 16-6-12
Major League Soccer · 2nd
No stances yet today on $MIAMI: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Inter Miami CF bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Inter Miami CF 53% to win, draw 25%. Projected score Inter Miami CF 2.1, Columbus Crew 1.4; spread Inter Miami CF −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 55% for Inter Miami CF. Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF, Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM ET.