Le Havre AC vs Troyes prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Le Havre AC at Troyes: Bandwagon's model makes Troyes a 51% favorite (Troyes −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 48%.
Le Havre AC vs Troyes model odds and win probability
Axle gives Troyes a 51% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Ligue 1 marketEach bar is the chance that Troyes win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 51%.
The largest gap is 3 points: Axle has Troyes at 51%, Kalshi at 48%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Troyes
All Ligue 1 ratings| HAC | TRY | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1321 17th of 18 | 1363 16th of 18 |
| Record | 0-8-2 | 2-6-2 |
| Last 5 games | 0-5 | 1-3-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record and last 5 results are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | TRY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:43 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:14 PM ET | 51% | +2 |
| Nov 8, 10:53 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:59 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:54 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 49% | — |
Le Havre AC vs Troyes odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Troyes at 48%, Polymarket at 48%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 51%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | HAC | Draw | TRY | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 26% | 26% | 48% | ||
| Polymarket | 26% | 26% | 48% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 25% | 24% | 51% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Le Havre AC vs Troyes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Troyes a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 51% chance to win and a 24% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Troyes 1363 (16th of 18), Le Havre AC 1321 (17th). The Troyes are 2-6-2; the Le Havre AC are 0-8-2. The Troyes have won 1 of their last 5; the Le Havre AC 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Le Havre AC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Lorient | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Paris Saint-Germain | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marseille | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AJ Auxerre | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lille | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Troyes
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Le Havre AC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Troyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Le Havre AC0-8-2 18th
- Le Havre AC rating1321 17th of 18, 10 games
- Troyes2-6-2 17th
- Troyes rating1363 16th of 18, 10 games
More Ligue 1 games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Le Havre AC 0-8-2
Ligue 1 · 18th
No stances yet today on $LEHAVREAC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Le Havre AC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Troyes 2-6-2
Ligue 1 · 17th
No stances yet today on $TROYES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Troyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Le Havre AC at Troyes
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Troyes 51% to win, draw 24%. Projected score Troyes 1.8, Le Havre AC 1.2; spread Troyes −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 48%, Polymarket 48% for Troyes. Le Havre AC at Troyes, Fri, Nov 20, 2:45 PM ET.