Premier League odds, Nov 2–8, 2026: Bandwagon's model vs Kalshi and Polymarket
Bandwagon's model has a line on 11 of 11 Premier League games Nov 2–8, 2026. Its biggest favorite is Arsenal at 73%, against Hull City; its closest game is Chelsea at Sunderland, 38%–34%. The largest gap with a market is Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United: the model gives Leeds United 50% and Kalshi 33% (17 points). Model as of Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET; prices as of Nov 8, 11:11 AM ET.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
Premier League Nov 2–8, 2026 slate
11 games| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Model win chance | Model spread | Model total | Kalshi | Polymarket | Crowd | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton at Newcastle United | Newcastle United 44% draw 27% | Newcastle United −0.5 | 3 | Newcastle United 44% | Newcastle United 45% | – | Everton 1, Newcastle United 0 model's favorite lost | |
| Coventry City at Everton | Everton 52% draw 25% | Everton −0.5 | 2.5 | Everton 58% | Everton 58% | – | Coventry City 1, Everton 3 model's favorite won | |
| Tottenham Hotspur at Leeds United | Leeds United 50% draw 26% | Leeds United −0.5 | 2.5 | Leeds United 33% | Leeds United 34% | – | Tottenham Hotspur 0, Leeds United 1 model's favorite won | |
| Hull City at Arsenal | Arsenal 73% draw 17% | Arsenal −1.5 | 2.5 | Arsenal 86% | Arsenal 86% | – | Hull City 0, Arsenal 1 model's favorite won | |
| Newcastle United at Fulham | Fulham 45% draw 27% | Fulham −0.5 | 2.5 | Fulham 48% | Fulham 50% | – | Newcastle United 1, Fulham 1 ended level | |
| Manchester City at Nottingham Forest | Manchester City 55% draw 24% | Manchester City −1 | 3 | Manchester City 60% | Manchester City 59% | – | Manchester City 1, Nottingham Forest 3 model's favorite lost | |
| AFC Bournemouth at Ipswich Town | AFC Bournemouth 44% draw 27% | AFC Bournemouth −0.5 | 3 | AFC Bournemouth 49% | AFC Bournemouth 49% | – | AFC Bournemouth 2, Ipswich Town 1 model's favorite won | |
| Brentford at Brighton & Hove Albion | Brighton & Hove Albion 54% draw 25% | Brighton & Hove Albion −0.5 | 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion 52% | Brighton & Hove Albion 53% | – | Brentford 0, Brighton & Hove Albion 2 model's favorite won | |
| Chelsea at Sunderland | Chelsea 38% draw 28% | even | 3 | Chelsea 43% | Chelsea 42% | – | Chelsea 0, Sunderland 1 model's favorite lost | |
| Liverpool at Crystal Palace | Liverpool 48% draw 27% | Liverpool −0.5 | 3 | Liverpool 63% | Liverpool 63% | – | Liverpool 3, Crystal Palace 1 model's favorite won | |
| Aston Villa at Manchester United | Manchester United 42% draw 28% | even | 2.5 | Manchester United 48% | Manchester United 48% | – | Aston Villa 4, Manchester United 4 ended level |
Kalshi and Polymarket show their implied chance for the side the model favors (the home side where the model has no favorite), from the newest price in the last day; for a game already played, the last price before kickoff. The crowd column is Bandwagon members' picks.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
The model's record this week
The model's favorite won 6 of 11 finished Premier League games that had a favorite (55%), and 2 games ended level. Each line is the one stored before kickoff. The model's record