Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSMU 56%
- Projected scoreSMU 29, Wake Forest 26
- Model spreadSMU −2.5 total 55
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Wake Forest Demon Deacons or SMU Mustangs: the bandwagon
Axle 44–56Market 54–46
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at SMU Mustangs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | WAKE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WAKE– | SMU– |
| Average win probability | WAKE– | SMU– |
| Longest scoring run | WAKE– | SMU– |
| Time leading | WAKE– | SMU– |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SMU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:06 PM ET | 56% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 60% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 64% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 58% | — |
- Ratings
- SMU 1643 · WAKE 1664
- Home spread
- −2.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Wake Forest vs SMU odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Mustangs at 45%, Polymarket at 46% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | WAKE | SMU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 55% | 45% | ||
| Polymarket | 54% | 46% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 44% | 56% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs SMU Mustangs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mustangs a 2.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 55. Ratings: Mustangs 1643 (23rd of 138), Demon Deacons 1664 (19th). The Mustangs have won 4 of their last 5; the Demon Deacons 5 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Mustangs won 0, the Demon Deacons 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Virginia Cavaliers | W 51–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at California Golden Bears | W 41–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at NC State Wolfpack | W 38–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | W 57–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | W 30–27 | – | – | matchup |
SMU Mustangs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Syracuse Orange | L 27–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs California Golden Bears | W 59–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Virginia Cavaliers | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston College Eagles | W 25–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Missouri State Bears | W 34–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 12–13 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Wake Forest Demon Deacons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
SMU Mustangs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Demon Deacons– 2nd · W5
- Demon Deacons rating1664 19th of 138, 8 games
- Mustangs– 3rd · L1
- Mustangs rating1643 23rd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W5
No stances yet today on $WAKE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SMU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SMU Mustangs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: SMU 56% to win. Projected score SMU 29, Wake Forest 26; spread SMU −2.5, total 55. Kalshi 45%, Polymarket 46% for SMU. Wake Forest Demon Deacons at SMU Mustangs, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET.