Wake Forest won 51-7 over Virginia, and the program's home crowd has every reason to be loud about it. The model had the home side at 80 percent before kickoff, so this one landed about where the numbers said it would.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Virginia Cavaliers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreVirginia 7, Wake Forest 51 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerWake Forest 80%
- Pregame Projected scoreWake Forest 33, Virginia 19
- Model spreadWake Forest −13.5 total 52
- Margin44 projected 13.5
- Total58 projected 52
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Virginia Cavaliers or Wake Forest Demon Deacons: the bandwagon
Axle 20–80Market 18–82
FinalPregame: WAKE 80%Baseline: WAKE 95.4% (+15.7)Big swing: 16.3 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| WAKE | 10 | 10 | 24 | 7 | 51 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for WAKE over the last 5:00
Big swing16.3 ptstoward WAKE at 2:26 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineWAKE 95.4%game average, +15.7 points from the pregame 79.7%
Virginia Cavaliers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | UVA330 | WAKE538 |
| First downs | UVA18 | WAKE28 |
| 3rd down | UVA1/12 | WAKE9/14 |
| 4th down | UVA3/7 | WAKE1/1 |
| Turnovers | UVA1 | WAKE0 |
| Penalties-yards | UVA4-42 | WAKE3-45 |
| Time of possession | UVA26:17 | WAKE33:43 |
Virginia Cavaliers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UVA7 | WAKE51 |
| Average win probability | UVA5% | WAKE95% |
| Longest scoring run | UVA+7 | WAKE+24 |
| Time leading | UVA0:00 | WAKE57:34 |
Virginia Cavaliers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET
Cavaliers20%
Win chanceDemon Deacons80%
SpreadWAKE −13.5closing model spread
Total52
Moneyline+393away / −393homeaway / home
Line movementWAKE win chance, 23 stored lines
−4 pts for WAKE between Oct 28 and Oct 31
90%74%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | WAKE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 80% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 84% | — |
- Ratings
- WAKE 1642 · UVA 1504
- Home spread
- −13.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET · 2026-10-31 22:46 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Virginia Cavaliers 7, Wake Forest Demon Deacons 51. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · The injury list is older than three daysplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
CavaliersDemon Deacons
Neutrals only–
CavaliersDemon Deacons
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Demon Deacons–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Virginia vs Wake Forest odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Demon Deacons at 82% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 83% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 80% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | UVA | WAKE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 19% | 82% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 18% | 83% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 80% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, WAKE: +2Polymarket minus model, WAKE: +3
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Virginia Cavaliers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Demon Deacons a 13.5-point favorite at home, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 52. Ratings: Demon Deacons 1664 (19th of 138), Cavaliers 1482 (75th). The Demon Deacons have won 5 of their last 5; the Cavaliers 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Demon Deacons won 1, the Cavaliers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Virginia Cavaliers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | L 7–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Duke Blue Devils | L 16–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SMU Mustangs | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Syracuse Orange | W 28–25 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida State Seminoles | L 7–38 | – | – | matchup |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Virginia Cavaliers | W 51–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at California Golden Bears | W 41–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at NC State Wolfpack | W 38–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | W 57–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | W 30–27 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Cavaliers | 16–9 | – | – | matchup | |
| Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 31–30 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Virginia Cavaliers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Wake Forest Demon Deacons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cavaliers– 13th · L3
- Cavaliers rating1482 75th of 138, 8 games
- Demon Deacons– 2nd · W5
- Demon Deacons rating1664 19th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 13th · streak L3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UVA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UVA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UVA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UVA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Virginia Cavaliers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W5
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $WAKE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $WAKE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $WAKE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $WAKE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Sign in to post a take on $UVAWAKE261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Virginia 7, Wake Forest 51. Bandwagon's model had the Wake Forest at 80% and projected Wake Forest 33, Virginia 19; spread Wake Forest −13.5, total 52. Last read: Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 83% for Wake Forest.