Utah State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSan Diego State 51%
- Projected scoreSan Diego State 25.5, Utah State 25.0
- Model spreadSan Diego State −0.5 total 50.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Utah State Aggies or San Diego State Aztecs: the bandwagon
Axle 49–51Market 47–53
Utah State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Utah State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Utah State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | USU– | SDSU– |
| Average win probability | USU– | SDSU– |
| Longest scoring run | USU– | SDSU– |
| Time leading | USU– | SDSU– |
Utah State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SDSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 51% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 48% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 51% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 53% | — |
- Ratings
- SDSU 1412 · USU 1461
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Utah State vs San Diego State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Aztecs at 53%, Polymarket at 53%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 51%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | USU | SDSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 47% | 53% | ||
| Polymarket | 47% | 53% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 49% | 51% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Utah State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aztecs a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 51% chance to win. The model total is 50.5. Ratings: Aztecs 1412 (97th of 138), Aggies 1461 (82nd). The Aztecs have won 3 of their last 5; the Aggies 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Aztecs won 0, the Aggies 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Utah State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 31–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington State Cougars | W 17–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boise State Broncos | L 18–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Troy Trojans | W 21–10 | – | – | matchup |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Washington State Cougars | W 26–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | L 49–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fresno State Bulldogs | W 26–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oregon State Beavers | L 14–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas State Bobcats | W 31–29 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State Aztecs at Utah State Aggies | 20–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs | 32–24 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Utah State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Diego State Aztecs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Aggies– 6th · W1
- Aggies rating1461 82nd of 138, 7 games
- Aztecs– 5th · W1
- Aztecs rating1412 97th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $USU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Utah State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SDSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Diego State Aztecs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: San Diego State 51% to win. Projected score San Diego State 25.5, Utah State 25.0; spread San Diego State −0.5, total 50.5. Kalshi 53%, Polymarket 53% for San Diego State. Utah State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs, Sat, Nov 14, 9:30 PM ET.