Texas Longhorns vs LSU Tigers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Texas at LSU: Bandwagon's model makes Texas a 62% favorite (Texas −5); Kalshi prices them at 38%.
Texas Longhorns vs LSU Tigers model odds and win probability
Axle gives Texas a 62% chance to win, by about 5 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Texas win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 62%.
The largest gap is 25 points: Axle has Texas at 62%, Polymarket at 37%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Texas
All CFB ratings| TEX | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1770 6th of 138 | 1646 24th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | LSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 38% | −7 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 45% | −5 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 PM ET | 50% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 52% | −7 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 59% | — |
Texas vs LSU odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Longhorns at 38%, Polymarket at 37% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 62%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TEX | LSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38% | 62% | ||
| Polymarket | 37% | 63% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 62% | 38% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Texas Longhorns vs LSU Tigers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Longhorns a 5-point favorite, with a 62% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Tigers 1646 (24th of 138), Longhorns 1770 (6th). The Tigers have won 3 of their last 5; the Longhorns 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Texas Longhorns
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Missouri Tigers | W 34–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mississippi State Bulldogs | W 31–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ole Miss Rebels | W 34–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Gators | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma Sooners | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup |
LSU Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Alabama Crimson Tide | L 13–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Auburn Tigers | W 38–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mississippi State Bulldogs | W 31–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kentucky Wildcats | L 34–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas A&M Aggies | W 35–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Texas Longhorns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
LSU Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Longhorns– 4th · W3
- Longhorns rating1770 6th of 138, 9 games
- Tigers– 8th · L1
- Tigers rating1646 24th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 4th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $TEXAS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas Longhorns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $LSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the LSU Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Texas Longhorns at LSU Tigers
Sign in to post a take on $TEXASLSU261114: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Texas 62% to win. Projected score Texas 28, LSU 23; spread Texas −5, total 51. Kalshi 38%, Polymarket 37% for Texas. Texas Longhorns at LSU Tigers, Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET.