Sam Houston Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerJacksonville State 94%
- Projected scoreJacksonville State 38, Sam Houston 10
- Model spreadJacksonville State −27.5 total 47.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Sam Houston Bearkats or Jacksonville State Gamecocks: the bandwagon
Axle 6–94Market 12–88
Sam Houston Bearkats at Jacksonville State Gamecocks win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SHSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SHSU– | JXST– |
| Average win probability | SHSU– | JXST– |
| Longest scoring run | SHSU– | JXST– |
| Time leading | SHSU– | JXST– |
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | JXST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 94% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 96% | +1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 95% | — |
- Ratings
- JXST 1555 · SHSU 1214
- Home spread
- −27.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Gamecocks at 88%, Polymarket at 88%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 94%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SHSU | JXST | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 12% | 88% | ||
| Polymarket | 12% | 88% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 6% | 94% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Gamecocks a 27.5-point favorite at home, with a 94% chance to win. The model total is 47.5. Ratings: Gamecocks 1555 (52nd of 138), Bearkats 1214 (137th). The Gamecocks have won 5 of their last 5; the Bearkats 0 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Gamecocks won 3, the Bearkats 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Sam Houston Bearkats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Missouri State Bears | L 3–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico State Aggies | L 24–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | L 3–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Liberty Flames | L 3–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Tech Red Raiders | L 14–49 | – | – | matchup |
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New Mexico State Aggies | W 24–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida International Panthers | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kennesaw State Owls | W 27–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | W 31–27 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Sam Houston Bearkats | 29–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sam Houston Bearkats at Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 11–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Sam Houston Bearkats | 35–28 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Sam Houston Bearkats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Jacksonville State Gamecocks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bearkats– 10th · L5
- Bearkats rating1214 137th of 138, 7 games
- Gamecocks– 2nd · W5
- Gamecocks rating1555 52nd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak L5
No stances yet today on $SHSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sam Houston Bearkats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W5
No stances yet today on $JXST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sam Houston Bearkats at Jacksonville State Gamecocks
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Model: Jacksonville State 94% to win. Projected score Jacksonville State 38, Sam Houston 10; spread Jacksonville State −27.5, total 47.5. Kalshi 88%, Polymarket 88% for Jacksonville State. Sam Houston Bearkats at Jacksonville State Gamecocks, Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET.