Sacramento State Hornets vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
Sacramento State at Hawai'i: Bandwagon's model makes Hawai'i a 78% favorite (Hawai'i −12.5).
Sacramento State Hornets vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors odds and win probability
Axle gives Hawai'i a 78% chance to win, by about 13 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Hawai'i
All CFB ratings| SAC | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1278 130th of 138 | 1404 104th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | HAW win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 78% | — |
Sacramento State Hornets vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rainbow Warriors a 12.5-point favorite at home, with a 78% chance to win. The model total is 47. Ratings: Rainbow Warriors 1404 (104th of 138), Hornets 1278 (130th). The Rainbow Warriors have won 2 of their last 5; the Hornets 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Sacramento State Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toledo Rockets | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 31–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ball State Cardinals | L 17–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio Bobcats | L 7–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | L 10–38 | – | – | matchup |
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UTEP Miners | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northern Illinois Huskies | W 56–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 10–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona State Sun Devils | L 12–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | L 16–20 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Sacramento State Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Hornets– 12th · L1
- Hornets rating1278 130th of 138, 9 games
- Rainbow Warriors– 8th · W2
- Rainbow Warriors rating1404 104th of 138, 9 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SAC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sacramento State Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $HAW: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sacramento State Hornets at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Hawai'i 78% to win. Projected score Hawai'i 30, Sacramento State 17; spread Hawai'i −12.5, total 47. Sacramento State Hornets at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, Sat, Nov 28, 11:00 PM ET.