North Dakota State Bison vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerNorth Dakota State 70%
- Projected scoreNorth Dakota State 28, Hawai'i 19
- Model spreadNorth Dakota State −8.5 total 47
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
North Dakota State Bison or Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: the bandwagon
Axle 70–30Market 67–33
North Dakota State Bison at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
North Dakota State Bison vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
North Dakota State Bison vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NDSU | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NDSU– | HAW– |
| Average win probability | NDSU– | HAW– |
| Longest scoring run | NDSU– | HAW– |
| Time leading | NDSU– | HAW– |
North Dakota State Bison vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | HAW win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 30% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 31% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 30% | — |
- Ratings
- HAW 1395 · NDSU 1568
- Home spread
- +8.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
North Dakota State vs Hawai'i odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bison at 66%, Polymarket at 67% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 70%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NDSU | HAW | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 66% | 34% | ||
| Polymarket | 67% | 33% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 70% | 30% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
North Dakota State Bison vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bison a 8.5-point favorite, with a 70% chance to win. The model total is 47. Ratings: Rainbow Warriors 1395 (104th of 138), Bison 1568 (42nd). The Rainbow Warriors have won 1 of their last 5; the Bison 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
North Dakota State Bison
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UTEP Miners | W 31–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | L 16–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nevada Wolf Pack | W 31–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UNLV Rebels | L 7–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | W 28–0 | – | – | matchup |
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Northern Illinois Huskies | W 56–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico Lobos | L 10–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona State Sun Devils | L 12–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | L 16–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wyoming Cowboys | L 10–27 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
North Dakota State Bison: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bison– 2nd · W1
- Bison rating1568 42nd of 138, 8 games
- Rainbow Warriors– 8th · W1
- Rainbow Warriors rating1395 104th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $NDSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Dakota State Bison bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $HAW: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on North Dakota State Bison at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
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Model: North Dakota State 70% to win. Projected score North Dakota State 28, Hawai'i 19; spread North Dakota State −8.5, total 47. Kalshi 66%, Polymarket 67% for North Dakota State. North Dakota State Bison at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, Sat, Nov 14, 11:00 PM ET.