Kentucky Wildcats vs Missouri Tigers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Kentucky at Missouri: Bandwagon's model makes Missouri a 67% favorite (Missouri −7); Kalshi prices them at 48%.
Kentucky Wildcats vs Missouri Tigers model odds and win probability
Axle gives Missouri a 67% chance to win, by about 7 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every CFB marketEach bar is the chance that Missouri win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 67%.
The largest gap is 19 points: Axle has Missouri at 67%, Kalshi at 48%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Missouri
All CFB ratings| UK | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1578 40th of 138 | 1623 28th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MIZ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 67% | +4 |
| Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET | 63% | −5 |
| Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | — |
Kentucky vs Missouri odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Tigers at 48%, Polymarket at 61% (13 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 67%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UK | MIZ | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 52% | 48% | ||
| Polymarket | 39% | 61% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 33% | 67% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kentucky Wildcats vs Missouri Tigers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tigers a 7-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 52.5. Ratings: Tigers 1623 (28th of 138), Wildcats 1578 (40th). The Tigers have won 3 of their last 5; the Wildcats 4 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Tigers won 1, the Wildcats 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Kentucky Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Tennessee Volunteers | L 6–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vanderbilt Commodores | W 34–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma Sooners | W 21–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LSU Tigers | W 35–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Carolina Gamecocks | W 35–34 | – | – | matchup |
Missouri Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas Longhorns | L 20–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arkansas Razorbacks | W 34–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ole Miss Rebels | L 3–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas A&M Aggies | W 27–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Gators | W 45–17 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats | 38–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers | 21–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Kentucky Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Missouri Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wildcats– 3rd · L1
- Wildcats rating1578 40th of 138, 8 games
- Tigers– 9th · L1
- Tigers rating1623 28th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UK: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kentucky Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MIZ: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Missouri Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Missouri 67% to win. Projected score Missouri 30, Kentucky 23; spread Missouri −7, total 52.5. Kalshi 48%, Polymarket 61% for Missouri. Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers, Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 PM ET.