James Madison Dukes vs UConn Huskies prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerJames Madison 74%
- Projected scoreJames Madison 33, UConn 22
- Model spreadJames Madison −10 total 55
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
James Madison Dukes or UConn Huskies: the bandwagon
Axle 74–26Market 66–34
James Madison Dukes at UConn Huskies win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
James Madison Dukes vs UConn Huskies live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
James Madison Dukes vs UConn Huskies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | JMU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | JMU– | CONN– |
| Average win probability | JMU– | CONN– |
| Longest scoring run | JMU– | CONN– |
| Time leading | JMU– | CONN– |
James Madison Dukes vs UConn Huskies model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CONN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 26% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 27% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 30% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 26% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 28% | — |
- Ratings
- CONN 1488 · JMU 1687
- Home spread
- +10
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
James Madison vs UConn odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Dukes at 67%, Polymarket at 65% (2 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 74%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | JMU | CONN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 67% | 33% | ||
| Polymarket | 65% | 35% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 74% | 26% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
James Madison Dukes vs UConn Huskies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Dukes a 10-point favorite, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 55. Ratings: Huskies 1488 (74th of 138), Dukes 1687 (14th). The Huskies have won 2 of their last 5; the Dukes 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Huskies won 0, the Dukes 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
James Madison Dukes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Troy Trojans | L 21–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at App State Mountaineers | L 31–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia State Panthers | W 49–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Southern Eagles | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marshall Thundering Herd | W 45–17 | – | – | matchup |
UConn Huskies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Air Force Falcons | L 26–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | W 35–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Temple Owls | W 34–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Syracuse Orange | L 41–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami (OH) RedHawks | L 21–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn Huskies at James Madison Dukes | 6–44 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
James Madison Dukes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UConn Huskies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Dukes– Sun Belt - East, 1st · L2
- Dukes rating1687 14th of 138, 8 games
- Huskies– 2nd · L1
- Huskies rating1488 74th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 1st · streak L2
No stances yet today on $JMU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the James Madison Dukes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CONN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UConn Huskies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on James Madison Dukes at UConn Huskies
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Model: James Madison 74% to win. Projected score James Madison 33, UConn 22; spread James Madison −10, total 55. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 65% for James Madison. James Madison Dukes at UConn Huskies, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET.