Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ball State Cardinals prediction, odds and picks, November 28, 2026
Central Michigan at Ball State: Bandwagon's model makes Central Michigan a 64% favorite (Central Michigan −5.5).
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ball State Cardinals odds and win probability
Axle gives Central Michigan a 64% chance to win, by about 6 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Central Michigan
All CFB ratings| CMU | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1429 91st of 138 | 1293 129th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BALL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 36% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 36% | — |
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Ball State Cardinals prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Chippewas a 5.5-point favorite, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 52.5. Ratings: Cardinals 1293 (129th of 138), Chippewas 1429 (91st). The Cardinals have won 2 of their last 5; the Chippewas 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cardinals won 2, the Chippewas 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Central Michigan Chippewas
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Eastern Michigan Eagles | W 35–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami (OH) RedHawks | L 27–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Michigan Broncos | L 14–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ohio Bobcats | L 14–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Akron Zips | W 41–17 | – | – | matchup |
Ball State Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Massachusetts Minutemen | L 30–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | W 34–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | W 32–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | L 14–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | L 24–39 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas | 34–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Cardinals | 17–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ball State Cardinals at Central Michigan Chippewas | 17–16 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Central Michigan Chippewas: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Ball State Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Chippewas– 7th · W1
- Chippewas rating1429 91st of 138, 8 games
- Cardinals– 9th · L1
- Cardinals rating1293 129th of 138, 8 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $CMU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Central Michigan Chippewas bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $BALL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ball State Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Cardinals
Sign in to post a take on $CMUBALL261128: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Central Michigan 64% to win. Projected score Central Michigan 29, Ball State 23; spread Central Michigan −5.5, total 52.5. Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Cardinals, Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 PM ET.