CBBFDU–ETAM11:30 AMCBBKC–FAMU12:00 PMWCBBUIW–UTSA12:00 PMWCBBHCU–UNT12:00 PMCBBDART–UALB1:00 PMWCBBBCU–BYU1:00 PMWCBBUSA–FAU1:00 PMCBBUIW–UCD2:00 PMWCBBQUIN–SJU2:00 PMCBBJOES–USF3:00 PMCBBLUC–AF3:00 PMCBBNCAT–ECU4:00 PMWCBBORE–UVM4:00 PMWCBBMERC–SBU4:30 PMCBBBCU–SDSU5:00 PMWCBBEIU–SLU5:00 PMCBBPENN–NAVY5:30 PMWCBBNAVY–JMU6:00 PMWCBBGMU–ARMY6:00 PMWCBBJAX–CCU6:00 PMWCBBUNCG–GWEB6:00 PMWCBBBING–COLG6:00 PMWCBBRAD–CAM6:00 PMWCBBFOR–BUCK6:00 PMWCBBGTWN–GW6:00 PMWCBBUWF–FSU6:00 PMWCBBNJIT–LAF6:00 PMCBBNCCU–VMI6:00 PMWCBBEMU–RMU6:00 PMWCBBSIE–SYR6:00 PMWCBBSF–AF6:00 PMWCBBMSM–LEH6:00 PMWCBBDREX–UVA6:00 PMWCBBMRST–DUQ6:00 PMWCBBSTBK–NIA6:00 PMWCBBCOPP–HOF6:00 PMWCBBIDST–USU6:00 PMWCBBUML–BC6:00 PMWCBBEVAN–UK6:30 PMWCBBAPSU–UCF6:30 PMAll scores
bandwagon.Newsletter
Axle 2.076% straight up1147 games
FBS · · LaVell Edwards Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line

Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model

Baylor at BYU: Bandwagon's model makes BYU a 76% favorite (BYU −11); Kalshi prices them at 72%.

Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars model odds and win probability

BAY · AWAYBaylorwon 3 of last 5
KickoffLaVell Edwards Stadium
BYU · HOMEBYUwon 3 of last 5

Axle gives BYU a 76% chance to win, by about 11 points.

Baylor 24%BYU 76%
Projected score20–31Baylor–BYU
Model spreadBYU −11BAY +11
Model total50.5points
Model moneyline+308 / −308BAY / BYU

Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Axle versus the markets and the crowd

Every CFB market

Each bar is the chance that BYU win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 76%.

Axle 2.0Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET76%
KalshiNov 11, 2:51 AM ET72%
PolymarketNov 11, 1:51 AM ET73%

The largest gap is 4 points: Axle has BYU at 76%, Kalshi at 72%.

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Who ya got · no picks yet

Hop on a side before kickoff

▲ BaylorAxle 24%▲ BYUAxle's side · 76%

Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.

Why Axle has BYU

All CFB ratings
BAY and BYU side by side
BAYBYU
Rating1583 39th of 1381688 16th of 138
Last 5 games3-23-2
StreakW2L1
Home fieldNoYes
Meetings won02

Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.

How Axle's line has moved

Line movementBYU win chance, 75 stored lines
−11 pts for BYU since Oct 28
92%70%
Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET: BYU 87%Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET: BYU 87%Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET: BYU 87%Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET: BYU 87%Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET: BYU 84%Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET: BYU 84%Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET: BYU 79%Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET: BYU 79%Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET: BYU 79%Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET: BYU 79%Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET: BYU 79%Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET: BYU 79%Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET: BYU 79%Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET: BYU 79%Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET: BYU 81%Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET: BYU 81%Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET: BYU 81%Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET: BYU 81%Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET: BYU 81%Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET: BYU 81%Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET: BYU 81%Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET: BYU 81%Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET: BYU 81%Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET: BYU 81%Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET: BYU 81%Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET: BYU 81%Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET: BYU 81%Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET: BYU 79%Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET: BYU 76%Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET: BYU 76%Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET: BYU 76%Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET: BYU 76%Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET: BYU 76%Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET: BYU 76%Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET: BYU 76%Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET: BYU 76%
Oct 28Nov 4Now
Every stored line
StoredBYU winMove
Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET76%0
Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET76%0
Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET76%0
Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET76%0
Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET76%0
Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET76%0
Nov 8, 2:17 AM ET76%0
Nov 8, 2:12 AM ET76%0
Nov 8, 1:27 AM ET76%0
Nov 8, 12:52 AM ET76%0
Nov 8, 12:47 AM ET76%0
Nov 7, 11:31 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 11:20 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 11:15 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 11:10 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 11:05 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 8:24 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 7:34 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 7:29 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 7:24 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 7:09 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 6:09 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 5:49 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 3:54 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 3:49 PM ET76%0
Nov 7, 3:40 PM ET76%−3
Nov 7, 3:29 PM ET79%−2
Nov 7, 3:24 PM ET81%0
Nov 7, 3:19 PM ET81%0
Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET81%0
Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET81%0
Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET81%0
Nov 5, 11:36 PM ET81%0
Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET81%0
Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET81%0
Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET81%0
Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET81%0
Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET81%0
Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET81%0
Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET81%0
Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET81%0
Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET81%0
Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET81%0
Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET81%0
Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET81%0
Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET81%0
Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET81%0
Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET81%0
Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET81%+2
Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET79%0
Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET79%0
Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET79%0
Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET79%0
Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET79%0
Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET79%0
Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET79%0
Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET79%0
Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET79%0
Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET79%0
Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET79%0
Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET79%−5
Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET84%0
Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET84%0
Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET84%0
Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET84%−3
Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET87%0
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET87%0
Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET87%0
Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET87%0
Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET87%0
Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET87%—

Baylor vs BYU odds on Kalshi and Polymarket

Every College football market

Kalshi prices Cougars at 72%, Polymarket at 73% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 76%.

Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .

SourceBAYBYUPrice read
Kalshi28%72%
Polymarket27%73%
Bandwagon model24%76% · model 2.0
Kalshi minus model, BYU: −4Polymarket minus model, BYU: −3

Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works

Baylor Bears vs BYU Cougars prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Cougars a 11-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 50.5. Ratings: Cougars 1688 (16th of 138), Bears 1583 (39th). The Cougars have won 3 of their last 5; the Bears 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cougars won 2, the Bears 0.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Form, head-to-head and injuries

Recent form

Baylor Bears

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
vs Iowa State CyclonesW 42–31––matchup
at UCF KnightsW 41–9––matchup
at Kansas JayhawksL 24–25––matchup
vs TCU Horned FrogsL 6–17––matchup
at Arizona State Sun DevilsW 55–19––matchup

BYU Cougars

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
at Utah UtesL 20–28––matchup
vs Arizona State Sun DevilsW 27–20––matchup
at UCF KnightsL 31–39––matchup
vs Notre Dame Fighting IrishW 28–24––matchup
vs Iowa State CyclonesW 24–10––matchup

Head-to-head

GameKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
BYU Cougars at Baylor Bears34–28––matchup
Baylor Bears at BYU Cougars20–26––matchup

Injuries

Baylor Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

BYU Cougars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings
  • Bears– 6th · W2
  • Bears rating1583 39th of 138, 8 games
  • Cougars– 3rd · L1
  • Cougars rating1688 16th of 138, 8 games

More CFB games in the next 7 days

Bulls vs CardinalsAxle: Bulls 71%Kalshi 53%Minutemen vs RocketsAxle: Rockets 92%Kalshi 84%Hornets vs ChippewasAxle: Chippewas 81%Kalshi 90%Tigers vs BullsAxle: Bulls 53%Kalshi 39%
Baylor pageBYU pageCFB odds boardCFB on Kalshi and PolymarketWeekly pick'emAxle's recordOdds calculators

The bandwagon on each team

Baylor Bears

NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak W2

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BAY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BAY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BAY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $BAY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Baylor Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Bears roster, schedule and more

BYU Cougars

NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak L1

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BYU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BYU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BYU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $BYU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the BYU Cougars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Cougars roster, schedule and more

Takes on Baylor Bears at BYU Cougars

Sign in to post a take on $BAYBYU261114: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.

No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.

How Axle makes this line

How this line is made

In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal

  • Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
  • Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
  • Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
  • Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External

  • Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
  • Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
  • Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:11 AM UTC

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Model: BYU 76% to win. Projected score BYU 31, Baylor 20; spread BYU −11, total 50.5. Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 73% for BYU. Baylor Bears at BYU Cougars, Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET.