Auburn Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction, odds and picks, November 27, 2026
Auburn at Alabama: Bandwagon's model makes Alabama a 90% favorite (Alabama −21.5).
Auburn Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide odds and win probability
Axle gives Alabama a 90% chance to win, by about 21 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Alabama
All CFB ratings| AUB | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1501 70th of 138 | 1753 7th of 138 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ALA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:52 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:43 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 90% | — |
Auburn Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Crimson Tide a 21.5-point favorite at home, with a 90% chance to win. The model total is 54.5. Ratings: Crimson Tide 1753 (7th of 138), Tigers 1501 (70th). The Crimson Tide have won 3 of their last 5; the Tigers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Crimson Tide won 4, the Tigers 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Auburn Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Arkansas Razorbacks | W 26–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ole Miss Rebels | L 15–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LSU Tigers | L 17–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia Bulldogs | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tennessee Volunteers | L 14–24 | – | – | matchup |
Alabama Crimson Tide
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at LSU Tigers | W 31–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas A&M Aggies | W 31–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tennessee Volunteers | L 10–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Bulldogs | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mississippi State Bulldogs | W 56–23 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers | 27–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide | 14–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers | 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide | 27–49 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Auburn Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Alabama Crimson Tide: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Tigers– 12th · W1
- Tigers rating1501 70th of 138, 9 games
- Crimson Tide– 2nd · W2
- Crimson Tide rating1753 7th of 138, 9 games
More CFB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $AUB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Auburn Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $BAMA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama Crimson Tide bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Alabama 90% to win. Projected score Alabama 38, Auburn 17; spread Alabama −21.5, total 54.5. Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide, Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 AM ET.