St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs App State Mountaineers prediction, odds and picks, November 23, 2026
St. Bonaventure at App State: Bandwagon's model makes App State a 56% favorite (App State −3).
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs App State Mountaineers odds and win probability
Axle gives App State a 56% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has App State
All CBB ratings| SBU | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1516 155th of 365 | 1537 120th of 365 |
| Record | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | APP win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:38 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | — |
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs App State Mountaineers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mountaineers a 3-point favorite, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 141.5. Ratings: Mountaineers 1537 (120th of 365), Bonnies 1516 (155th). The Mountaineers are 2-1; the Bonnies are 1-1. The Mountaineers have won 1 of their last 5; the Bonnies 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Canisius Golden Griffins | W 88–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Youngstown State Penguins | L 71–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dayton Flyers | L 63–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at George Mason Patriots | W 63–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at La Salle Explorers | W 99–80 | – | – | matchup |
App State Mountaineers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Auburn Tigers | L 53–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at App State Mountaineers | L 49–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 73–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 57–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | W 89–74 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
St. Bonaventure Bonnies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
App State Mountaineers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bonnies1-1 11th · W1
- Bonnies rating1516 155th of 365, 2 games
- Mountaineers2-1 2nd · L1
- Mountaineers rating1537 120th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 11th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SBUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $APPMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the App State Mountaineers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on St. Bonaventure Bonnies at App State Mountaineers
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: App State 56% to win. Projected score App State 72, St. Bonaventure 69; spread App State −3, total 141.5. St. Bonaventure Bonnies at App State Mountaineers, Mon, Nov 23, 11:00 AM ET.