Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Florida Gators prediction, odds and picks, November 17, 2026
Notre Dame at Florida: Bandwagon's model makes Florida an 81% favorite (Florida −11).
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Florida Gators odds and win probability
Axle gives Florida a 81% chance to win, by about 11 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Florida
All CBB ratings| ND | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1509 163rd of 365 | 1728 4th of 365 |
| Record | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W3 | W3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | FLA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 81% | −1 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:48 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:14 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:18 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:07 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:06 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:26 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:04 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:59 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:14 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:55 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 6:10 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:24 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:49 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 4:14 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 82% | +60 |
| Nov 7, 12:49 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:04 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:44 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:34 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:24 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:09 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:44 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:35 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:20 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:07 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:02 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:56 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:47 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:36 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:31 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:26 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:06 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:01 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 8:56 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 7:12 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 6:09 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 12:54 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:26 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:16 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 10:57 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 10:17 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 10:08 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:53 PM ET | 22% | −1 |
| Nov 5, 9:48 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:33 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:28 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:23 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:18 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:13 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 9:03 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 8:58 PM ET | 23% | +2 |
| Nov 5, 8:08 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 7:33 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:16 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:25 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 21% | — |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Florida Gators prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Gators a 11-point favorite, with a 81% chance to win. The model total is 146.5. Ratings: Gators 1728 (4th of 365), Fighting Irish 1509 (163rd). The Gators are 3-0; the Fighting Irish are 3-0. The Gators have won 4 of their last 5; the Fighting Irish 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Eastern Illinois Panthers | W 94–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mercyhurst Lakers | W 83–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Villanova Wildcats | W 74–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston College Eagles | L 69–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | L 78–86 | – | – | matchup |
Florida Gators
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Florida State Seminoles | W 81–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Jacksonville Dolphins | W 88–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Hurricanes | W 77–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | L 72–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Prairie View A&M Panthers | W 114–55 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Florida Gators: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Fighting Irish3-0 7th · W3
- Fighting Irish rating1509 163rd of 365, 3 games
- Gators3-0 2nd · W3
- Gators rating1728 4th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $NDMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Florida Gators 3-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $FLAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida Gators bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Florida Gators
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Florida 81% to win. Projected score Florida 79, Notre Dame 68; spread Florida −11, total 146.5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Florida Gators, Tue, Nov 17, 4:30 PM ET.