Michigan Wolverines vs Villanova Wildcats prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Michigan at Villanova: Bandwagon's model makes Michigan a 58% favorite (Michigan −1).
Michigan Wolverines vs Villanova Wildcats odds and win probability
Axle gives Michigan a 58% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Michigan
All CBB ratings| MICH | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1763 2nd of 365 | 1595 56th of 365 |
| Record | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | VILL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:33 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 42% | +1 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:13 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 12:27 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:03 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:33 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 41% | — |
Michigan Wolverines vs Villanova Wildcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wolverines a 1-point favorite, with a 58% chance to win. The model total is 147.5. Ratings: Wildcats 1595 (56th of 365), Wolverines 1763 (2nd). The Wildcats are 2-1; the Wolverines are 1-1. The Wildcats have won 2 of their last 5; the Wolverines 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Wildcats won 0, the Wolverines 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Michigan Wolverines
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UConn Huskies | L 77–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oakland Golden Grizzlies | W 84–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UConn Huskies | W 69–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | W 91–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Volunteers | W 95–62 | – | – | matchup |
Villanova Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs La Salle Explorers | W 80–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Holy Cross Crusaders | W 95–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 72–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | L 76–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgetown Hoyas | L 64–78 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova Wildcats at Michigan Wolverines | 61–89 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Michigan Wolverines: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Villanova Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wolverines1-1 17th · L1
- Wolverines rating1763 2nd of 365, 2 games
- Wildcats2-1 11th · W2
- Wildcats rating1595 56th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 17th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MICHMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Michigan Wolverines bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 11th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $VILLMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Villanova Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Michigan Wolverines at Villanova Wildcats
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Michigan 58% to win. Projected score Michigan 74, Villanova 73; spread Michigan −1, total 147.5. Michigan Wolverines at Villanova Wildcats, Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ET.