Evansville Purple Aces vs Memphis Tigers prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
Evansville at Memphis: Bandwagon's model makes Memphis a 79% favorite (Memphis −10).
Evansville Purple Aces vs Memphis Tigers odds and win probability
Axle gives Memphis a 79% chance to win, by about 10 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Memphis
All CBB ratings| EVAN | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1389 327th of 365 | 1509 161st of 365 |
| Record | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MEM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:38 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 79% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:43 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 80% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 79% | — |
Evansville Purple Aces vs Memphis Tigers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tigers a 10-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 149.5. Ratings: Tigers 1509 (161st of 365), Purple Aces 1389 (327th). The Tigers are 2-1; the Purple Aces are 2-1. The Tigers have won 3 of their last 5; the Purple Aces 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Evansville Purple Aces
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L 68–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles | W 78–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northern Iowa Panthers | L 59–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Illinois Salukis | L 67–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Valparaiso Beacons | W 80–79 | – | – | matchup |
Memphis Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Vanderbilt Commodores | L 81–105 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VCU Rams | W 89–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Iowa State Cyclones | W 80–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulane Green Wave | L 69–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulane Green Wave | W 96–95 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Evansville Purple Aces: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Memphis Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Purple Aces2-1 6th · L1
- Purple Aces rating1389 327th of 365, 1 games
- Tigers2-1 4th · L1
- Tigers rating1509 161st of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $EVANMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Evansville Purple Aces bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Memphis Tigers 2-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MEMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Memphis Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Evansville Purple Aces at Memphis Tigers
Sign in to post a take on $EVANMBBMEMMBB261122: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Memphis 79% to win. Projected score Memphis 80, Evansville 70; spread Memphis −10, total 149.5. Evansville Purple Aces at Memphis Tigers, Sun, Nov 22, 2:00 PM ET.