Evansville Purple Aces vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders prediction, odds and picks, November 10, 2026
- Projected winnerMiddle Tennessee 79%
- Projected scoreMiddle Tennessee 78, Evansville 68
- Model spreadMiddle Tennessee −10 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Evansville Purple Aces or Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: the bandwagon
Axle 21–79Market –
Evansville Purple Aces at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Evansville Purple Aces vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Evansville Purple Aces vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | EVAN | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | EVAN– | MTSU– |
| Average win probability | EVAN– | MTSU– |
| Longest scoring run | EVAN– | MTSU– |
| Time leading | EVAN– | MTSU– |
Evansville Purple Aces vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MTSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:13 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 79% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 83% | +18 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- MTSU 1500 · EVAN 1383
- Home spread
- −10
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Evansville Purple Aces vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Blue Raiders a 10-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Blue Raiders 1500 (179th of 361), Purple Aces 1383 (334th). The Blue Raiders are 1-0; the Purple Aces are 0-0. The Blue Raiders have won 4 of their last 5; the Purple Aces 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Blue Raiders won 2, the Purple Aces 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Evansville Purple Aces
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Northern Iowa Panthers | L 59–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Illinois Salukis | L 67–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Valparaiso Beacons | W 80–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Belmont Bruins | L 64–98 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Murray State Racers | L 75–88 | – | – | matchup |
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 69–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Missouri State Bears | W 75–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida International Panthers | W 73–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico State Aggies | W 86–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UTEP Miners | W 77–67 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Evansville Purple Aces | 77–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| Evansville Purple Aces at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 63–80 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Evansville Purple Aces: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Purple Aces0-0 5th · -
- Purple Aces rating1383 334th of 361, 0 games
- Blue Raiders1-0 1st · W1
- Blue Raiders rating1500 179th of 361, 0 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak -
No stances yet today on $EVANMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Evansville Purple Aces bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MTSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Middle Tennessee 79% to win. Projected score Middle Tennessee 78, Evansville 68; spread Middle Tennessee −10, total 145.5. Evansville Purple Aces at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Tue, Nov 10, 7:30 PM ET.