Duke Blue Devils lead Army Black Knights 22-11 with 8:11 left in the 1st quarter, an 11-point gap. The model gives Duke a 95% chance to win from here, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Cameron Indoor Stadium · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Army Black Knights vs Duke Blue Devils: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreArmy 50, Duke 84 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerDuke 95%
- Pregame Projected scoreDuke 83, Army 63
- Model spreadDuke −20.5 total 145.5
- Margin34 projected 20.3
- Total134 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Army Black Knights or Duke Blue Devils: the bandwagon
Axle 5–95Market –
FinalPregame: DUKE 95%Baseline: DUKE 99.4% (+4.4)Big swing: 2.5 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 18 | 32 | 50 |
| DUKE | 33 | 51 | 84 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Army Black Knights at Duke Blue Devils win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for DUKE over the last 5:00
Big swing2.5 ptstoward DUKE at 1:02 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineDUKE 99.4%game average, +4.4 points from the pregame 95.0%
Army Black Knights vs Duke Blue Devils live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ARMY | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | ARMY18/52 | DUKE29/59 |
| 3-pointers | ARMY8/30 | DUKE4/22 |
| Free throws | ARMY6/9 | DUKE22/26 |
| Rebounds | ARMY28 | DUKE37 |
| Assists | ARMY13 | DUKE13 |
| Turnovers | ARMY24 | DUKE13 |
| Steals | ARMY5 | DUKE16 |
| Blocks | ARMY3 | DUKE6 |
| Points in the paint | ARMY20 | DUKE50 |
| Fast-break points | ARMY6 | DUKE25 |
| Fouls | ARMY19 | DUKE14 |
| Largest lead | ARMY0 | DUKE37 |
Army Black Knights vs Duke Blue Devils team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ARMY | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ARMY50 | DUKE84 |
| Average win probability | ARMY1% | DUKE99% |
| Longest scoring run | ARMY+9 | DUKE+12 |
| Time leading | ARMY0:00 | DUKE38:29 |
Army Black Knights vs Duke Blue Devils odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET
Black Knights5%
Win chanceBlue Devils95%
SpreadDUKE −20.5closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+1900away / −1900homeaway / home
Line movementDUKE win chance, 18 stored lines
+30 pts for DUKE between Oct 29 and Nov 2
100%60%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | DUKE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:08 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 95% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 98% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 98% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 98% | +33 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- DUKE 1763 · ARMY 1374
- Home spread
- −20.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET · 2026-11-03 01:41 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Army Black Knights 50, Duke Blue Devils 84. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Black KnightsBlue Devils
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Black KnightsBlue Devils
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Blue Devils–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Army Black Knights vs Duke Blue Devils prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Blue Devils a 20.5-point favorite at home, with a 95% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Blue Devils 1766 (2nd of 361), Black Knights 1372 (340th). The Blue Devils are 1-0; the Black Knights are 0-1. The Blue Devils have won 4 of their last 5; the Black Knights 0 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Blue Devils won 2, the Black Knights 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Army Black Knights
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Duke Blue Devils | L 50–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bucknell Bison | L 55–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lafayette Leopards | L 77–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bucknell Bison | L 73–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Navy Midshipmen | L 63–81 | – | – | matchup |
Duke Blue Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Army Black Knights | W 84–50 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UConn Huskies | L 72–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. John's Red Storm | W 80–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs TCU Horned Frogs | W 81–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Siena Saints | W 71–65 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils at Army Black Knights | 114–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| Army Black Knights at Duke Blue Devils | 58–100 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Army Black Knights: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Duke Blue Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Black Knights0-1 3rd · L1
- Black Knights rating1372 340th of 361, 1 games
- Blue Devils1-0 4th · W1
- Blue Devils rating1766 2nd of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ARMYMBB
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No stances yet today on $ARMYMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Army Black Knights bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Duke Blue Devils 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $DUKEMBB
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $DUKEMBB
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No stances yet today on $DUKEMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Duke Blue Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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