Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction, odds and picks, November 18, 2026
- Projected winnerArkansas State 83%
- Projected scoreArkansas State 79, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 68
- Model spreadArkansas State −11.5 total 147
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions or Arkansas State Red Wolves: the bandwagon
Axle 17–83Market –
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Arkansas State Red Wolves win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs Arkansas State Red Wolves live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs Arkansas State Red Wolves team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UAPB | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UAPB– | ARST– |
| Average win probability | UAPB– | ARST– |
| Longest scoring run | UAPB– | ARST– |
| Time leading | UAPB– | ARST– |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs Arkansas State Red Wolves odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ARST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 83% | — |
- Ratings
- ARST 1560 · UAPB 1402
- Home spread
- −11.5
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Red Wolves a 11.5-point favorite at home, with a 83% chance to win. The model total is 147. Ratings: Red Wolves 1560 (78th of 361), Golden Lions 1402 (320th). The Red Wolves are 1-0; the Golden Lions are 0-1. The Red Wolves have won 4 of their last 5; the Golden Lions 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Arkansas Razorbacks | L 61–106 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Southern Jaguars | L 81–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Alcorn State Braves | W 83–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jackson State Tigers | L 78–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils | L 69–70 | – | – | matchup |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toledo Rockets | W 71–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 77–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 81–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 89–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 102–94 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Lions0-1 6th · L1
- Golden Lions rating1402 320th of 361, 1 games
- Red Wolves1-0 2nd · W1
- Red Wolves rating1560 78th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UAPBMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ARSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Arkansas State Red Wolves
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Model: Arkansas State 83% to win. Projected score Arkansas State 79, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 68; spread Arkansas State −11.5, total 147. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Arkansas State Red Wolves, Wed, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ET.