Purdue Fort Wayne leads Xavier 2-0 with 8:23 left in the first period, and the model gives the Mastodons an 82% chance at home. No crowd picks are in yet, so the early read comes from the numbers alone.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Allen County War Memorial Coliseum · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Xavier Musketeers vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreXavier 75, Purdue Fort Wayne 63 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerPurdue Fort Wayne 82%
- Pregame Projected scorePurdue Fort Wayne 72, Xavier 59
- Model spreadPurdue Fort Wayne −13 total 130.5
- Margin12 projected 12.9
- Total138 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Xavier Musketeers or Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons: the bandwagon
Axle 18–82Market –
FinalPregame: PFW 82%Baseline: PFW 42.1% (−39.6)Big swing: 16.9 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAV | 17 | 26 | 18 | 14 | 75 |
| PFW | 21 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 63 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Xavier Musketeers at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.9 points for PFW over the last 5:00
Big swing16.9 ptstoward PFW at 25:12 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselinePFW 42.1%game average, −39.6 points from the pregame 81.7%
Xavier Musketeers vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | XAV | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | XAV31/74 | PFW22/53 |
| 3-pointers | XAV6/26 | PFW6/23 |
| Free throws | XAV7/12 | PFW13/18 |
| Rebounds | XAV43 | PFW36 |
| Assists | XAV11 | PFW12 |
| Turnovers | XAV8 | PFW17 |
| Steals | XAV10 | PFW4 |
| Blocks | XAV0 | PFW2 |
| Points in the paint | XAV34 | PFW22 |
| Fast-break points | XAV15 | PFW5 |
| Fouls | XAV19 | PFW16 |
| Largest lead | XAV16 | PFW4 |
Xavier Musketeers vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | XAV | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Score | XAV75 | PFW63 |
| Average win probability | XAV58% | PFW42% |
| Longest scoring run | XAV+7 | PFW+7 |
| Time leading | XAV31:00 | PFW7:05 |
Xavier Musketeers vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET
Musketeers18%
Win chanceMastodons82%
SpreadPFW −13closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+448away / −448homeaway / home
Line movementPFW win chance, 19 stored lines
+19 pts for PFW between Oct 29 and Nov 2
91%58%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | PFW win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:06 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:46 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 12:31 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 82% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 86% | +23 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- PFW 1546 · XAV 1408
- Home spread
- −13
- Stored
- Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET · 2026-11-03 01:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Xavier Musketeers 75, Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons 63. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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MusketeersMastodons
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Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Mastodons–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Xavier Musketeers vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mastodons a 13-point favorite at home, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Mastodons 1515 (153rd of 356), Musketeers 1439 (242nd). The Mastodons are 0-1; the Musketeers are 1-0. The Mastodons have won 2 of their last 5; the Musketeers 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Mastodons won 0, the Musketeers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Xavier Musketeers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | W 75–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. John's Red Storm | L 48–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Creighton Bluejays | L 71–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marquette Golden Eagles | L 65–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at DePaul Blue Demons | L 67–76 | – | – | matchup |
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Xavier Musketeers | L 63–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arkansas State Red Wolves | L 72–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Alabama Jaguars | W 77–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Green Bay Phoenix | L 48–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs IU Indianapolis Jaguars | W 85–49 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Xavier Musketeers | 61–62 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Xavier Musketeers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Musketeers1-0 10th · W1
- Musketeers rating1439 242nd of 356, 1 games
- Mastodons0-1 10th · L1
- Mastodons rating1515 153rd of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 10th · streak W1
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No stances yet today on $XAVWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Xavier Musketeers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 10th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PFWWBB
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PFWWBB
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No stances yet today on $PFWWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Xavier Musketeers at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
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Final: Xavier 75, Purdue Fort Wayne 63. Bandwagon's model had the Purdue Fort Wayne at 82% and projected Purdue Fort Wayne 72, Xavier 59; spread Purdue Fort Wayne −13, total 130.5.