Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags prediction, odds and picks, November 8, 2026
- Projected winnerFairfield 69%
- Projected scoreFairfield 69, Vermont 61
- Model spreadFairfield −8 total 130.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Vermont Catamounts or Fairfield Stags: the bandwagon
Axle 31–69Market –
Vermont Catamounts at Fairfield Stags win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UVM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UVM– | FAIR– |
| Average win probability | UVM– | FAIR– |
| Longest scoring run | UVM– | FAIR– |
| Time leading | UVM– | FAIR– |
Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags odds
Every stored line
| Stored | FAIR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 9:45 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:45 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 2:15 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:28 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:48 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:34 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:33 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:08 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 69% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 70% | +7 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- FAIR 1680 · UVM 1642
- Home spread
- −8
- Stored
- Nov 4, 9:45 PM ET · 2026-11-05 02:45 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Vermont Catamounts vs Fairfield Stags prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Stags a 8-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Stags 1680 (23rd of 356), Catamounts 1642 (44th). The Stags are 0-0; the Catamounts are 1-0. The Stags have won 4 of their last 5; the Catamounts 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Vermont Catamounts
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 52–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Maine Black Bears | W 61–43 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UMBC Retrievers | W 68–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UAlbany Great Danes | W 55–40 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UMass Lowell River Hawks | W 68–37 | – | – | matchup |
Fairfield Stags
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 60–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Quinnipiac Bobcats | W 51–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Merrimack Warriors | W 65–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacred Heart Pioneers | W 69–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacred Heart Pioneers | W 67–50 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Vermont Catamounts: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Fairfield Stags: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Catamounts1-0 7th · W1
- Catamounts rating1642 44th of 356, 0 games
- Stags0-0 13th · -
- Stags rating1680 23rd of 356, 0 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UVMWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vermont Catamounts bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Fairfield Stags 0-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 13th · streak -
No stances yet today on $FAIRWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fairfield Stags bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Vermont Catamounts at Fairfield Stags
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Model: Fairfield 69% to win. Projected score Fairfield 69, Vermont 61; spread Fairfield −8, total 130.5. Vermont Catamounts at Fairfield Stags, Sun, Nov 8, 2:00 PM ET.