UMBC Retrievers vs Brown Bears prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
UMBC at Brown: Bandwagon's model makes Brown a 53% favorite (Brown −3.5).
UMBC Retrievers vs Brown Bears odds and win probability
Axle gives Brown a 53% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Brown
All WCBB ratings| UMBC | BRWN | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1550 129th of 357 | 1493 175th of 357 |
| Record | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W3 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BRWN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:58 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:08 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:03 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:08 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:58 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:58 PM ET | 53% | −7 |
| Nov 8, 3:53 PM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:48 PM ET | 60% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 2:58 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:18 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 61% | — |
UMBC Retrievers vs Brown Bears prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bears a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 53% chance to win. The model total is 134. Ratings: Bears 1493 (175th of 357), Retrievers 1550 (129th). The Bears are 1-2; the Retrievers are 3-0. The Bears have won 1 of their last 5; the Retrievers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Bears won 1, the Retrievers 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UMBC Retrievers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Quinnipiac Bobcats | W 91–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers | W 79–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marshall Thundering Herd | L 53–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ohio Bobcats | W 62–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vermont Catamounts | L 65–68 | – | – | matchup |
Brown Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Bucknell Bison | W 73–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Army Black Knights | L 56–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Siena Saints | L 71–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Princeton Tigers | L 51–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pennsylvania Quakers | L 56–69 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown Bears at UMBC Retrievers | 56–54 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UMBC Retrievers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Brown Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Retrievers3-0 4th · W3
- Retrievers rating1550 129th of 357, 2 games
- Bears1-2 7th · W1
- Bears rating1493 175th of 357, 3 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
UMBC Retrievers 3-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak W3
No stances yet today on $UMBCWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UMBC Retrievers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Brown Bears 1-2
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $BRWNWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Brown Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UMBC Retrievers at Brown Bears
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.