Lecce vs Lazio prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Lecce at Lazio: Bandwagon's model makes Lazio a 74% favorite (Lazio −1.5); Kalshi prices them at 72%.
Lecce vs Lazio model odds and win probability
Axle gives Lazio a 74% chance to win, by about 1.4 goals, with a 17% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that Lazio win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 74%.
The largest gap is 2 points: Axle has Lazio at 74%, Kalshi at 72%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Lazio
All Serie A ratings| LEC | LAZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1340 18th of 20 | 1557 4th of 20 |
| Record | 3-7-1 | 9-0-2 |
| Last 5 games | 1-3-1 | 4-0-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | LAZ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:48 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:58 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:27 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 74% | — |
Lecce vs Lazio odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Lazio at 72%, Polymarket at 72%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 74%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LEC | Draw | LAZ | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 10% | 18% | 72% | ||
| Polymarket | 11% | 17% | 72% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 9% | 17% | 74% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Lecce vs Lazio prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lazio a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win and a 17% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Lazio 1557 (4th of 20), Lecce 1340 (18th). The Lazio are 9-0-2; the Lecce are 3-7-1. The Lazio have won 4 of their last 5; the Lecce 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lazio won 3, the Lecce 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Lecce
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Torino | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Genoa | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Frosinone | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Juventus | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Udinese | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup |
Lazio
Head-to-head
Injuries
Lecce: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Lazio: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lecce3-7-1 14th
- Lecce rating1340 18th of 20, 11 games
- Lazio9-0-2 1st
- Lazio rating1557 4th of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Lecce 3-7-1
Serie A · 14th
No stances yet today on $LECCE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lecce bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Lazio 9-0-2
Serie A · 1st
No stances yet today on $LAZIO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lazio bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Lecce at Lazio
Sign in to post a take on $LECCELAZIO261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Lazio 74% to win, draw 17%. Projected score Lazio 2.2, Lecce 0.8; spread Lazio −1.5, total 3. Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 72% for Lazio. Lecce at Lazio, Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 AM ET.