Serie A, and Genoa at Lecce has just kicked off with the score level at 0-0. The model gives Lecce a 35% chance right now, and no crowd picks are in yet, so there is nothing to compare it against.
Serie A · · Stadio Via del Mare · every Serie A line
Genoa vs Lecce: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreGenoa 2, Lecce 1
- Pregame Projected winnereven
- Pregame Projected scoreLecce 1.5, Genoa 1.5
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Margin1 projected 0
- Total3 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Genoa or Lecce: the bandwagon
Axle 36–35Market –
FinalPregame: LEC 50%Baseline: LEC 17.8% (−31.9)Big swing: 31.1 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| GEN | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| LEC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
GEN 47.4%LEC 52.6%
Genoa at Lecce win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to GEN−4.2 points for LEC over the last 10:00
Big swing31.1 ptstoward LEC at 45:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineLEC 17.8%game average, −31.9 points from the pregame 49.7%
Genoa vs Lecce live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | GEN | LEC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | GEN47.4% | LEC52.6% |
| Shots | GEN13 | LEC18 |
| Shots on target | GEN3 | LEC7 |
| Corners | GEN3 | LEC6 |
| Passes completed | GEN271/365 | LEC303/390 |
| Saves | GEN6 | LEC1 |
| Fouls | GEN8 | LEC19 |
| Offsides | GEN3 | LEC1 |
| Yellow cards | GEN1 | LEC2 |
| Red cards | GEN0 | LEC0 |
Genoa vs Lecce team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | GEN | LEC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | GEN2 | LEC1 |
| Average win probability | GEN82% | LEC18% |
| Longest scoring run | GEN+2 | LEC+2 |
| Time leading | GEN78:00 | LEC0:00 |
Genoa vs Lecce odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET
Genoa36%
Win chanceLecce35%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+181away / +238draw / +186homeaway / draw / home
Line movementLEC win chance, 14 stored lines
−5 pts for LEC between Oct 29 and Nov 1
45%29%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | LEC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 8:29 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:01 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 35% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 38% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 40% | — |
- Ratings
- LEC 1348 · GEN 1391
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET · 2026-11-01 15:59 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Genoa 2, Lecce 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
GenoaLecce
Neutrals only–
GenoaLecce
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Lecce–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Genoa vs Lecce prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 35% for the Lecce, 30% for a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Lecce 1337 (18th of 20), Genoa 1403 (12th). The Lecce are 3-7; the Genoa are 4-5-1. The Lecce have won 1 of their last 5; the Genoa 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lecce won 2, the Genoa 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Genoa
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Lecce | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Juventus | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Venezia | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AS Roma | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fiorentina | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Lecce
Head-to-head
Injuries
Genoa: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Lecce: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Genoa4-5-1 11th
- Genoa rating1403 12th of 20, 10 games
- Lecce3-7 14th
- Lecce rating1337 18th of 20, 10 games
Genoa 4-5-1
Serie A · 11th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $GENOA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $GENOA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $GENOA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $GENOA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Genoa bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Lecce 3-7
Serie A · 14th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LECCE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LECCE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LECCE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LECCE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lecce bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Genoa at Lecce
Sign in to post a take on $GENOALECCE261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.