Fiorentina vs Monza prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Fiorentina at Monza: Bandwagon's model makes Fiorentina a 44% favorite (even); Kalshi prices them at 49%.
Fiorentina vs Monza model odds and win probability
Axle gives Fiorentina a 43% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that Fiorentina win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 43%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Kalshi has Fiorentina at 49%, Axle at 43%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Fiorentina
All Serie A ratings| FIO | MON | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1407 11th of 20 | 1312 20th of 20 |
| Record | 2-6-3 | 2-8-1 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 1-4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MON win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | — |
Fiorentina vs Monza odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Fiorentina at 49%, Polymarket at 49%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 44%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | FIO | Draw | MON | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 49% | 25% | 26% | ||
| Polymarket | 49% | 25% | 26% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 44% | 29% | 28% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Fiorentina vs Monza prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Fiorentina the favorite, with a 44% chance to win and a 29% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Monza 1312 (20th of 20), Fiorentina 1407 (11th). The Monza are 2-8-1; the Fiorentina are 2-6-3. The Monza have won 1 of their last 5; the Fiorentina 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Monza won 2, the Fiorentina 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Fiorentina
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Juventus | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sassuolo | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atalanta | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Internazionale | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Como | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Monza
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina at Monza | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Monza at Fiorentina | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Monza at Fiorentina | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fiorentina at Monza | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fiorentina at Monza | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Monza at Fiorentina | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Fiorentina: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Monza: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Fiorentina2-6-3 15th
- Fiorentina rating1407 11th of 20, 11 games
- Monza2-8-1 18th
- Monza rating1312 20th of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Fiorentina 2-6-3
Serie A · 15th
No stances yet today on $FIORENTINA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fiorentina bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Monza 2-8-1
Serie A · 18th
No stances yet today on $MONZA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Monza bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Fiorentina at Monza
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Fiorentina 44% to win, draw 29%. Projected score Fiorentina 1.8, Monza 1.7; spread even, total 3.5. Kalshi 49%, Polymarket 49% for Fiorentina. Fiorentina at Monza, Mon, Nov 23, 2:45 PM ET.