Serie A tonight, and Bologna open at home with the model giving them a 65 percent chance right now. The score is level at 0-0 in the 6th minute, and no crowd picks are in yet, so there is nothing to compare it against.
Serie A · · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara · every Serie A line
Monza vs Bologna: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreMonza 1, Bologna 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerBologna 65%
- Pregame Projected scoreBologna 2.0, Monza 1.0
- Model spreadBologna −1 total 3
- Margin1 projected 1
- Total3 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Monza or Bologna: the bandwagon
Axle 14–65Market –
FinalPregame: BOL 76%Baseline: BOL 71.8% (−4.0)Big swing: 30.4 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MON | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BOL | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
MON 40.8%BOL 59.2%
Monza at Bologna win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+2.9 points for BOL over the last 10:00
Big swing30.4 ptstoward BOL at 33:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineBOL 71.8%game average, −4.0 points from the pregame 75.8%
Monza vs Bologna live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MON | BOL |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | MON40.8% | BOL59.2% |
| Shots | MON6 | BOL10 |
| Shots on target | MON4 | BOL5 |
| Corners | MON2 | BOL5 |
| Passes completed | MON226/323 | BOL369/462 |
| Saves | MON3 | BOL3 |
| Fouls | MON19 | BOL13 |
| Offsides | MON1 | BOL4 |
| Yellow cards | MON3 | BOL4 |
| Red cards | MON0 | BOL0 |
Monza vs Bologna team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MON | BOL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MON1 | BOL2 |
| Average win probability | MON28% | BOL72% |
| Longest scoring run | MON+1 | BOL+2 |
| Time leading | MON26:00 | BOL30:00 |
Monza vs Bologna odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Monza14%
Win chanceBologna65%
SpreadBOL −1closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+636away / +371draw / −187homeaway / draw / home
Line movementBOL win chance, 8 stored lines
+12 pts for BOL between Oct 29 and Oct 31
71%48%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | BOL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 65% | +12 |
| Oct 29, 5:53 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 3:34 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 53% | — |
- Ratings
- BOL 1478 · MON 1325
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Monza 1, Bologna 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 11:30 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
MonzaBologna
Neutrals only–
MonzaBologna
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bologna–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Monza vs Bologna prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bologna a 1-point favorite at home, with a 65% chance to win and a 21% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Bologna 1483 (8th of 20), Monza 1320 (19th). The Bologna are 4-4-2; the Monza are 2-7-1. The Bologna have won 4 of their last 5; the Monza 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bologna won 3, the Monza 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Monza
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Bologna | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Napoli | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Torino | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cagliari | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lazio | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Bologna
Head-to-head
Injuries
Monza: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bologna: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Monza2-7-1 18th
- Monza rating1320 19th of 20, 10 games
- Bologna4-4-2 9th
- Bologna rating1483 8th of 20, 10 games
Monza 2-7-1
Serie A · 18th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MONZA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MONZA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MONZA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MONZA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Monza bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Bologna 4-4-2
Serie A · 9th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BOLOGNA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BOLOGNA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BOLOGNA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BOLOGNA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bologna bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Monza at Bologna
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